The Reserve Bank’s decision this week to reduce official interest rates by 50 basis points is good news.

Falling rates and solid signs of an improving local economy provide the Sydney housing market with the prospect for increased buyer activity and further increases in median house prices this year.

Australian Property Monitors has recently reported that the Sydney median house price rose strongly by 1.4 per cent in the March quarter.

The city’s suburban regions also recorded encouraging increases in median house prices during the quarter.

The only exception was the northern beaches, where prices were down marginally, by 0.5 per cent.

The top performer was the central coast, where median house prices rose by 5.7 per cent. The next best were Sydney’s south, up 5 per cent, Canterbury-Bankstown, up 4.8 per cent, and the western suburbs, where median house prices increased by 4.3 per cent.

Despite the increases, price levels in some areas are still below those recorded a year ago.

The worst performer over the past year was the lower north shore, where median house prices were down by 6.6 per cent.

The city and east region fell by 5.3 per cent and the northern beaches was down 4.9 per cent compared with March 2011.

Several regions, however, have recorded increases in the median house price in the past year. The best was the upper north shore, which was up 1.9 per cent.

Sydney’s west was up 1.8 per cent, while house prices in the south-west rose by 1.5 per cent over the year to March.

Dr Andrew Wilson is the senior economist for Fairfax-owned Australian Property Monitors.

Story source: www.domain.com.au

Many of us could spend hours (possibly weeks) pouring over pictures of hip homes in interiors magazines, and dreaming … If you’ve ever pondered the secrets of these pads’ photogenic success and wanted to emulate them, here are a couple of general tips:

Story time: Most photoshoots capture pictorial vignettes – the sofa, the casually draped throw, the lovely fluffy cushions, the pile of artistically arranged books … It’s not just about the furniture; it’s about what these items say and the story they tell about you and your home.

Go into detail:  A photographer’s nightmare is a room with no possessions on show. Editors love details – knick-knacks make a home a home.  We’re not thinking for a minute that you cover every space with your old telephone bills and children’s drawings – think knick-knacks, photos of loved ones and think about putting some of your children’s special pics in a frame – and put the bills and clutter out of sight!

Set great store: Good storage is vital – but it doesn’t need to be an expensive built-in: photographically that’s dull. Try a trendy glass cabinet, such as the eye-catching, Forma.

All the little things:  Bold doesn’t have to equal expensive. If you’re nervous, build on a neutral base – beige or brown lounge – then take risks with accessories: zingy cushions or throws, or a ceramic jar – much cheaper than getting the wrong lounge.

Screened off: Something you’ll never see in an interiors mag is the TV! They’re so huge now – and not pretty. Hide giants in a cupboard – and never hang one over a fireplace.

Personal appearance: Forget having the ‘right’ or fashionable thing. The best style is surrounding yourself with things that you love.

To create that beautifully designed magazine look, be sure to follow these tips.

Source: Nick Scali Reviews

Amid news that finding a rental property may have temporarily gotten a little easier with asking rents for units dropping 1.1 per cent during the first three months of the year, comes a warning that the easing won’t last.

Dr Andrew Wilson, the senior economist at Australian Property Monitors, says ongoing shortages of accommodation, low levels of new supply and continued inactivity by investors, will lead to upward pressure on rentals this year.

APM figures show weekly asking rents for units either fell or were steady across all capital cities in the first three months of the year.

Median weekly asking rents for houses remained unchanged in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth.

Minor relief was handed to house renters in Canberra with a 2 per cent fall, and in Adelaide to a lesser extent, where the asking rent for houses dipped 0.6 per cent.

The ongoing tight rental situation has led to renewed calls from two experts for the Federal Government to take a fresh look at negative gearing.

Dr Chris Martin, a senior policy officer at the Tenants’ Union of NSW, says bluntly: "There’s a bunch of things that could be done to negative gearing that would go some way to changing what it currently does to our housing system, which is screw up house prices and distort the rental market to the disadvantage of low-income renters.

"We have such a large number of landlords who have small holdings, typically most of them [own] only one property, and they are amateur speculators," Martin argues.

"They are more interested in being able to sell the place when they judge the time is right to either realise gain or lever up into some new, even higher-value property. And so their … strategy, depends on being able to get vacant possession when it suits them.

"Even more than our renting laws, it’s the nature of our landlords and their strategy that makes renting as insecure as it is."

Martin says the tenants most acutely affected by a shortage of rental properties are low-income earners who don’t qualify for social housing.

The union has found backing in Saul Eslake, who recently took up a role as chief economist of Bank of America-Merrill Lynch Australia.

Eslake has been following the Australian property market for more than three decades.

"Interests associated with landlords and the real estate industry more generally will always tell you that the abolition of negative gearing would be the worst thing that could possibly happen to tenants, not to them but to tenants, because they think it would lead to a landlord strike and huge increases in rents," says Elsake.

"They sometimes argue that ‘look at what happened in 1986 when the Hawke Government temporarily abolished negative gearing for rental property investment’, which they allege was a surge in rents as evidence of their assertions.

"In fact there was a significant increase in rents in Sydney and to some extent also in Perth … but it was only in Sydney and in Perth and in other parts of the country, the rate of increase in rents either slowed or actually fell.

"The truth is that negative gearing was abolished temporarily everywhere and if the abolition of negative gearing was going to cause a problem then … rent should have gone up everywhere rather than in just two cities.

"That’s a sort of an urban myth that has been living for the last 25 years to the detriment of informed policy making."

However, Eslake isn’t just advocating the abolition of negative gearing on investment properties.

"That would be quite unfair," he says. "I mean why should property investors be denied tax breaks that would still be available for investors in shares or bonds or artworks or gold? So I think it should be abolished for everyone.

"I’d even support, as a compromise, what the Henry Review proposed, which is that expenses association with property should be deducted at the rate at which the income from property is ultimately taxed on i.e. at the capital gains tax rate, that would be, to my way of thinking, a reasonable compromise, even though it falls short of what I’d regard as the ideal."

Story by Carolyn Boyd, Story source: www.domain.com.au

Foreign investors have “very odd” views about Australian property and fret that housing prices may yet collapse, according to a senior Australian banking executive.

“Overseas investors have a very odd set of views about Australian property prices,” Phil Chronican, ANZ’s chief executive of its Australian operations, said today.

“They on one hand look at the stability and take a lot of comfort from it. The other is they cannot believe Australia was able to not have a property price collapse.”
Questions about the health of Australia’s property market continue to surface in talks ANZ has with investors overseas more than four years after the financial crisis battered real estate markets in the US and UK, Mr Chronican told the American Chamber of Commerce in Melbourne.
Australia’s capital city home prices have lost 4.4 per cent in the year to March, and the outlook remains subdued.

While home prices have turned positive in the past two months, building approvals and dwelling starts have plunged and a shortage of affordable homes remains.
In the wide-ranging speech, the executive in charge of ANZ’s domestic market said the mining boom was passing many Australians by, contributing to a drop off in consumer activity in recent years.
“Despite our strong economy, many Australians feel worried about our prospects in the face of uncertainty in Europe and many, particularly outside the fast lane of the mining and resource sector, feel they’re not seeing the benefits,” Mr Chronican said.

Story by Chris Zappone, www.domain.com.au

Knowing your limits and the market will help to expand your property portfolio.

Why do some people struggle to buy one investment property and yet others manage to own five or six? The answer isn’t simply that they have more money.

Investors who are creative in their approach to financing and who thoroughly research the important real estate indicators routinely achieve their goals faster and with less hassle.

There are several well-known ways to increase a property portfolio. You can take out an interest-only loan, buy with partners as ”tenants in common” or tap into your home equity.

Owning an investment property is not out of reach, it simply requires an astute approach. Photo: AFR

All of which help free up cash flow, enabling you to make more substantial contributions to a principal place of residence or to access cash flow for other investments. Coupled with buying investment properties in the right place at the right time, these tactics have reaped financial rewards for many people.

But savvy investors take their strategies to the next level. Let’s look at some of the less-traditional approaches to more profitable property investing.

Varying your income tax

If you’re negatively geared, a good way to improve immediate cash flow is to ask your accountant to submit an income tax variation form to your payroll office.

This reduces the tax rate charged on your wages by estimating your total end-of-financial-year tax position in advance. Rather than receiving a lump sum tax refund, you receive money evenly throughout the year.

Line of credit with a global limit

This is a line of credit home loan with a ”global” or ”umbrella” limit and several sub-accounts. It gives you maximum access to your equity to optimise your investment opportunities. The loan can be operated with multiple accounts under one global limit.

Mortgage Choice spokeswoman Belinda Williamson says line of credit accounts can be attached to a credit card. ”If you earn a decent income, using a credit card for expenses should mean that most of your income stays in the loan until the credit card payment is due, which helps to reduce the loan balance.”

Targeting distressed vendors

Successful investors don’t appraise the properties on the market in an area, they try to work out why they are for sale. Paul Osborne, of the buyer’s advocate firm Secret Agent, says it’s a smart move to understand household indebtedness in specific areas to snare a bargain.

He says many households are managing to service only the interest repayments, not the principal amount, of their home loans. As a consequence, the best buying opportunities tend to be in suburbs that have high proportions of household debt.

A secondary dwelling as an investment

Building second dwellings, such as granny flats, on the land held by either an owner-occupied or an investment property has become a growing trend. These dwellings can generate extra rental income and increase the property’s future value.

They also provide depreciation benefits and must be council-approved. Lending criteria for secondary dwellings varies from lender to lender and it’s smart to monitor how such additions in an area have shifted property values.

Choose a loan tailored to your needs

Depending on your finances, lifestyle and investment portfolio, there are a range of property loans to consider. Ms Williamson recommends checking the health of your home loan at least once a year.

”You should make sure that your loans not only meet your current needs but also take your future needs into consideration,” she says. ”Make sure that you are managing your loan, rather than letting it manage you.” Always be aware that new products are entering the competitive housing finance market constantly.

Story source: www.domain.com.au Story by Chris Tolhurst

There are times that cause you to take a reality check on Australia’s overriding view of bricks and mortar as investments.

As brown swirling flood waters force thousands of people from their homes in NSW and northern Victoria last week, the images of rivers breaking their banks and gushing through gardens and into homes are enough to make you cry.

When one devastated homeowner declared on national television that he "wasn’t going through this again", his pain was raw for all to see.

Imagine being forced to grab a few precious belongings and leave your home to the will of nature.

Yes, it’s only brick and mortar, and not lives, but for many people – if not almost everyone – a home is part of what defines you. It’s full of memories. And most poignantly, brimming with dreams of times ahead.

A spokeswoman for the Bureau of Meteorology says the recent high rainfall is a result of La Niña and is not necessarily related to longer-term climate change.

Nevertheless, given that this week’s widespread flooding follows last year’s wave of floods, cyclones and bushfires, the question facing many Australians is whether this is situation normal, and if so, do we need to adapt our style of housing, or the infrastructure around it?

In a speech given by Insurance Australia Group chief executive Mike Wilkins late last year, he called on governments to learn the lessons from our recent experience to make our communities safer.

"If we don’t take action, we’re doomed to repeat this cycle of destruction, devastation, slow rebuild and lost productivity over and over again into the future," Wilkins told the American Chamber of Commerce in December.

"In recent times we’ve seen significant new areas of land being opened up for development in the rapidly growing areas around the north west of Sydney. Much of this region is located on the Nepean floodplain and has historically been subject to severe flooding.

"We believe the planning authorities responsible for releasing these areas of land must ensure mitigation work is conducted prior to any new building, so it is not subject to flood if the outskirts of Sydney experience a wet summer similar to Queensland’s."

Wilkins also highlighted the tragic Queensland floods of last summer.

"[They] were not the first times that many of the areas around Brisbane, Ipswich, Toowoomba and Emerald had been severely flooded. It will also not be the last time. In these areas, it is not a question of if; it’s a question of when the next flood will come.

"Notwithstanding this inevitable pattern, plenty of development – homes, sheds, businesses, even infrastructure like substations – was allowed to spring up in areas of unacceptable risk around Brisbane and Ipswich over the intervening drier years."

Wilkins said it was irresponsible to rebuild in a way that "ignores clear historical records". "We do a great disservice and potential harm to our community if we grow apathetic in our approach to rebuilding," he said.

Wilkins put forward a number of solutions, which are listed verbatim below:

• Increasing the woefully inadequate level of investment in mitigation infrastructure. Protective works could include barrages for unusual tides, levee banks, sea walls, properly maintained fire breaks and access trails, improved drainage and dams.
• Planning authorities must be a lot tougher and more transparent about their planning and zoning decisions. Development simply shouldn’t be allowed in areas of unacceptable danger.
• Strengthened building standards will ensure we are adequately prepared for changing risks.

"The improvement to building codes in cyclone-prone areas in north Queensland following Tropical Cyclone Larry meant that – notwithstanding its enormous size and destructive wind speeds – the level of damage incurred during Tropical Cyclone Yasi … was surprisingly low," Wilkins argued.

Story source: www.domain.com.au

The board of the Reserve Bank of Australia has left the official cash rate at 4.25 percent for the second month in a row.

The move was widely expected with inflation at the bottom of the RBA’s target band of 2-3 percent and global economic conditions improving.

However, the news may not be met with the rapturous receptions of the past with many lenders now lifting their rates independently of the RBA.

"The rates that borrowers pay have been creeping away from the Reserve Bank’s cash rate movements since the global financial crisis," RateCity CEO Damian Smith said.

"Last month proves that all variable rate mortgage holders are vulnerable to rate hikes, regardless of what the RBA does."

The central bank left rates on hold last month but that didn’t stop the big four, ANZ, Commonwealth Bank, NAB and Westpac from lifting their standard variable mortgage rates between 0.06 and 0.10 percent.

Westpac-owned St George went even further by hiking their rates by 0.12 percent.

The RBA was expected to ease rates last month but shocked observers when it left the rate unchanged, citing the resilient domestic economy and improved global outlook.

The decision not to move rates suggested the RBA had confidence in the local economy, buoyed by low unemployment and continued demand for labour.

However, the new dynamic the banks have set up by raising rates independently of the RBA mean borrowers could be hit by a rate rise at any time.

"Borrowers should expect frequent small changes in rates, perhaps as often as every month," Mr Smith said.

Source: www.ninemsn.com.au

It’s one of the quickest ways to give a home a facelift, but painting like the pros requires patience, attention to detail, a steady hand and yes, tedious preparation.

It’s a messy business, with lots of bending, twisting and negotiating ladders, and inevitable dithering over the crucial colour scheme.

Decide up front who lands the back-breaking tasks of heavy sanding and painting the ceilings.

Painting is not just about getting the paint onto surfaces successfully. There’s an awful lot of work involved in not getting paint where it shouldn’t be.

To start

Start your painting project with some measurements. You will need to know how many square meters you will be painting.

Asses the surface you want to paint, is it fresh plaster or cement, is it old flakey paint or wall paper, is it a relatively new finish?

Tools of the trade. A wall scraper and painter’s tape

How dark is the current colour compared to the new colour you’ve chosen? If the old paint is very dark and your new paint is light, you may need an undercoat or have to apply more coats of paint.

What’s the quality of the surface? Is it a nice smooth surface or is it a bit rough?

If you can’t decide on a colour scheme, get some sample pots and experiment.

Surface prep is time consuming but will give the end result a more professional look.

Remember, colours can look quite different in different lighting conditions, don’t just rely on looking at the paper samples in the shop.

Paint comes in a number of finishes from matt to gloss and are either acrylic or enamel or oil-based.

Flat paint hides flaws in old walls. A semi- or high-gloss paint works best on woodwork, such as door and window frames, and skirtings. Low-sheen is the most popular finish for walls.

Careful cutting in gives a much better finish.

Wear and tear is another point to consider. For example, high traffic areas or walls subjected to small sticky fingers will call for a tough, easy maintenance finish.

Most surfaces require two coats of paint, and if you’re painting over a dark colour or a new wall, you’ll probably need an undercoat.

That said, many paint companies now offer "one coat wonders", so it’s worth having a good browse of the paint shelves.

Fantasy land: you will not look this cute or happy when you’re painting. Wear old clothes or overalls and cover your hair. Gloves are a good idea too.

Preparation

You might be a wiz with a paint brush and roller, but all your efforts will be in vain if you haven’t meticulously prepared the surfaces.

Cover the floor
Be generous with the drop sheets, taping them to the walls so they don’t slide around. Make sure the drop sheets are tough enough to resist tearing if you’re going to be moving a ladder around.

Good lighting is essential to ensure even coats of paint.

Light and ventilation
Make sure you’ve got good even lighting where you’re working so you see what you’re doing clearly. Wall surfaces and paint colours will look different in different lighting conditions, especially if it’s daylight coming from a single window.

Use a good bright portable light for best results. And check what you’re doing from different angles in the room.

Whenever using chemicals and stirring up dust make sure you have plenty of fresh air.

Move the ladder, don’t risk a fall or back strain by reaching too far.

Surfaces
Older walls will need any loose paint scraped off. Holes and cracks need scraped out to remove loose material and then patched with a suitable filler.

Blade scrapers are great for tidying up old paint jobs that left paint on window glass.

Be very careful painting over old paints, some of them are oil-based and cannot be painted over directly.

Not all fun and games: Don’t be fooled by DIY shows on TV, painting is hard work … hijinks with a paint roller in the an episode of The Block.

Water-based paint will stick to oil-based paints but only if the surface is prepared correctly. Get some professional advice on this one.

Filling and sanding
The rougher the overall wall surface is to begin with, the more your nice neat filled spots will stand out as shiny patches. Roughen up your patching a little if you want it to blend in.

Old, chipped woodwork will look exactly that if you don’t give it a really rigorous sand, starting with coarse sandpaper and finishing with a fine grade.

Use a smaller bucket to carry with you as you paint.

Give the walls a good sand over rough or shiny surfaces too and a quick sand over all the rest.

Vacuum up all the dust and lose bits of paint and plaster once you have finished preparing the surfaces.

Follow this by washing with sugar soap.

Painter’s tape
Use masking tape to protect surfaces such as light switches and skirting boards. In fact if you aren’t 100% confident of having a very steady hand… tape up the edges of everything you don’t want paint on.

A quick wipe with a rag will remove some stray brushstrokes on glass or other shiny surfaces, but it’s much easier to remove painters tape than unwanted paint, wet or dry.

This sounds like a lot of fiddling – and it is – but you just won’t get really good results without it.

Painting

Tools
Before you take the lid off the paint can, make sure you are ready to go with all your tools and equipment.

There’s nothing worse than starting to paint only to find you need to make another trip to the hardware shop or garage.

The type of surface you’re painting and the type of paint on will determine they types of brushes and rollers you will need. Always buy the best brushes and rollers you can afford, they will make the paint job look more professional.

Buying cheap rollers might seem like a good idea but not when you’re left with fuzz in your fresh paint or extra work because the roller won’t hold enough paint.

Don’t put too much paint in a roller or brush. You want the paint applied evenly but not too thick on the walls. Use a nice firm pressure when using a roller.

Step one – edges
Start painting by cutting in around all the edges with a brush or a paint edger

Make sure your cutting in doesn’t dry before you start filling in with the roller.

Using a small container for your paint as you walk around the room is easier than moving a heavy tin of paint with you and is less dangerous to carry up a ladder.

Step two – walls
then use a roller to apply the paint in long, even zig-zag sweeps, finishing in parallel strokes that even out any overlapping paint edges.

Rollers will make painting walls much faster and give a far better finish than brushes.

You don’t want it dripping down the wall or on the floor and certainly not flying off the ends of the roller in globs.

Cutting in around light fittings and wall fixtures at the same time as you roll will help to avoid a patchy finish if you have a large area and won’t start using the roller before the edges dry.

Using a straight edge tool will help keep paint off adjacent areas if you haven’t taped them up. This tool is especially useful for painting right down to the bottom of walls in carpeted rooms.

The paint is for the wall not for the tool, just put paint on the wall side of the brush. Wipe the straight edge frequently to make sure it’s paint-free against the surface you are protecting.

Extension poles are a must if you’re painting high ceilings, it will be faster and much kinder on your back and neck, not to mention reducing the dangers of trips up and down a ladder.

Use roller tray liners for easier clean up and less waste.

Drop sheets are essential but they don’t save floors from paint you walk from the room you’re painting to another.

Try to clean up spills on your drop sheet as they happen, but always check your shoes or take them off before you step off the drop sheet onto unprotected surfaces.

Wrap brushes and rollers in plastic to prevent drying out or needing to wash if you’re taking a break or continuing the following day.

Do…

• Thoroughly stir the paint before starting
• Always work your way down, starting with the ceilings first
• Choose the best quality paint brushes and paint you can afford
• Paint in manageable patches to ensure you’re not going back over paint that’s started to dry already.
• Tie up/cover your hair unless you want paint speckles that don’t wash out once dried.

Don’t…

• Use a cheap masking tape. Buy proper painter’s masking tape that won’t remove the paint or chunks of plaster when you pull it off
• Overload your roller or brushes with paint
• Stir paint with a brush
• Try to paint over crumbly surfaces you will just get ugly lumps in your paint

Safety tips

• Always wear a dust mask or respirator when sanding or using products with fumes warnings
• Ensure rooms are well ventilated
• Use a fan to assist with ventilation
• Check your ladder is rock-steady before you step on it
• If your building is old, allow for the possibility of toxic lead paint. Further information can be obtained from the Environment Protection Agency on 1800 803 772
• Reduce trips up and down ladders by using smaller paint pots when painting with a brush, use and extension handle with a roller and avoid the ladder completely.

Story Source: www.domain.com.au

There’s still money to be made out of property if you are careful and hard-headed.

It has been the wealth strategy of a generation. Buy a home. Look after it, improve it, upgrade it. And if cash flow allows, gear up to your eyeballs to buy more property for other people to live in. For the baby boomers and for many from generations X and Y, it has been an easy path to success.

But the prospect of lower rates of capital growth and possibly even falls, if the doomsayers are right and the global economy takes another big turn for the worse, has changed the outlook for property investment.

Home owners and investors will need to be smarter about property. Solid rental yields, buying the right property at the right price and less dependence on gearing will be the key to making money. The days of certain returns made by gearing up and hitching a ride on the market boom are gone. At least for now.

THE OUTLOOK FOR PROPERTY

In November, The Economist magazine said Australian housing prices were still 38 per cent overvalued when compared with incomes and a hefty 53 per cent when compared with rents. Household debt levels in Australia exceeded those in the US at the peak of the boom, which makes us highly vulnerable to falling prices if the worst case of a second crisis – worse than that of 2008-09 – happens.

In December, ratings agency Moody’s said Australian house prices were unsustainable and last month a leading US real estate analyst, Jordan Wirsz, predicted Australian house prices could fall by as much as 60 per cent.

Last week, the Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey found Australia was one of the least affordable countries in which to buy a home. The median house price in capital cities was 6.7 times the median annual household income – with only Hong Kong being more expensive. Sydney was the least affordable city in Australia, with a median house price 9.2 times the average annual household income.

Many commentators say prices might be fully valued, or overvalued, but a crash is not the only way the market can correct itself. The head of property and financial system research at ANZ, Paul Braddick, says talk of a big crash assumes a doomsday scenario for the economy. While not impossible, he says it’s unlikely.

”Our base case is that the labour market will remain soft for the next six months but will start to pick up again in 2012-13,” he says. ”It won’t be a boom in any sense but [the economy] should bottom and start to pick up again.

”But there are risks and that does overlay sentiment. There’s a fear of the unknown and if Europe does implode, how will that affect us? As we saw in 2008 at the height of the global financial crisis, if overseas conditions get worrying enough, the Reserve Bank will react. In 2008-09, it lowered interest rates and boosted the housing market, though that was also helped by the new first-home owner boost and changes to the foreign investment rules, which are less likely to reappear this time.”

Given that, Braddick says the most likely scenario is that house prices will fall further in the next six to 12 months but once they have found a floor, prices should start to rise in line with household incomes. He says that means longer-term growth of about 4 per cent to 5 per cent a year on average, though there will be cycles around that.

The chief economist at AMP Capital Investors, Dr Shane Oliver, says historically, prices get ”stuck in a range” for five to 10 years after they have been pushed to extremes. He says research on house prices since 1920 shows they have risen about 3 per cent a year after inflation in the longer term.

He says in the 1990s, prices were below that long-term trend (see graph below) but they took off in the early 2000s and are now about 25 per cent above the trend line. Though not predicting a US-style collapse, Oliver says it is hard to see prices growing at the rate they were because affordability is so poor and people are more reluctant to take on debt.

Australian Property Monitors (APM) is predicting national growth this year of 3 per cent to 5 per cent (see table above).

It says Brisbane, Perth and Darwin have the potential for higher growth while Melbourne, Adelaide and Hobart are likely to underperform.

POTENTIAL STUMBLING BLOCKS

The managing director of SQM Research, Louis Christopher, says buyers need to ask what would trigger a major selloff in housing and assess the likelihood of those events happening. One strong trigger (thanks to high levels of household debt) would be a return of rising interest rates. ”All it took was the cash rate to get to 4.75 per cent to cause problems in this country,” he says.

He says buyers also need to watch for signs of the banks reducing loan-to-valuation ratios. He says house prices in most big British cities fell by about 20 per cent when British lenders suddenly cut lending ratios from 100 per cent or more to 80 per cent.

”Think about it,” he says. ”If you had a $50,000 deposit and someone was willing to lend 95 per cent, you could borrow up to $950,000. But if they would only lend 80 per cent, you could borrow $200,000 and your maximum purchasing power would be cut from $1 million to $250,000. You can see the havoc that would cause in the market.”

Why would banks cut their loan ratios? Like most things, it comes back to Europe. At worst, if Europe unravelled, we would be likely to see significant bank defaults that would limit the ability of other banks to raise finance outside their own countries. Australian banks have already raised the threat of another credit squeeze.

Other risks include unemployment rising to levels in which forced sales become a problem (Christopher says SQM Research’s modelling suggests problems would occur if unemployment broke through 7 per cent) and banks lifting interest rates independently of the Reserve Bank’s changes.

Oliver says the most vulnerable are heavily geared buyers, because they are most exposed to negative equity and forced sales. RP Data recently found slightly less than 5 per cent of Australian houses were worth less than their purchase price. Queensland had the highest levels of negative equity while Victorian households had the strongest equity positions. In Melbourne, 1.9 per cent of houses were worth less than their purchase price. However, the figures did not take into account debt, especially mortgage redraws.

The research director at RP Data, Tim Lawless, says coastal lifestyle markets are also vulnerable to a downturn and have already suffered from a downturn in tourism and sea-change migrants, as well as weak demand from second-home buyers. He says many of these lifestyle markets experienced dramatic appreciation before the GFC.

He says markets that had a big run-up in prices during the most recent growth periods are now also potentially more exposed to weaker conditions. ”The Melbourne market, for example, has seen home values appreciate by almost 50 per cent since the start of 2007,” he says. ”Rental yields in Melbourne are now the lowest of any capital city and new housing supply has been much more sufficient than [in] other cities.”

WHERE THE OPPORTUNITIES ARE

In this market, most analysts say the old strategies no longer guarantee success.

Buyers will need to do their sums and ensure they are buying well rather than simply picking the next ”hot suburbs” and riding the boom.

Success will also depend on having the flexibility to decide when to sell. That means buyers will need to keep borrowings at a manageable level so they are not forced to sell at the worst possible time.

Christopher says he is loath to tip particular areas, given that any recovery might not be long-lived. But he does favour the outer ring of Sydney, particularly the western and south-western suburbs.

”We see a big movement to more affordable housing,” he says. ”Rents there have already been rising by about 5 per cent a year, infrastructure has been improving and they have the potential to outperform over the next five years. We think 7 per cent growth there is possible.

”More average and above-average income earners are moving west because they don’t want to raise a family in a unit and it makes the mortgage more manageable.”

APM forecasts growth in Sydney this year will come mostly from middle- and lower-band suburbs, supported by high rents and an undersupply of housing. In his 2012 outlook, the senior research analyst at RP Data, Cameron Kusher, also predicted Sydney might perform better than in 2011. ”Home values across Sydney have increased at an average annual rate of just 4 per cent over the past 10 years,” he says. ”Although value growth has been limited, rents have increased by 5.4 per cent for houses and by 6.4 per cent for units in 2011. Estimated sales activity as at September 2011 was 6 per cent above the five-year average. Sydney’s market continues to be hampered by an undersupply of new housing at a time when demand remains strong.

”Although we don’t expect property values to increase at a rate above inflation, we anticipate Sydney will continue to be one of the better-performed markets, especially considering that when adjusted for inflation, values remain below their 2004 peaks.”

A property adviser at Lachlan Partners, Ana Bennett, says areas along the main Sydney transport corridors ”should do well”, given the undersupply of housing – ”areas that aren’t reliant on having two cars to get to work” – though she says Melbourne is a different prospect.

”The large volume of stock coming onto the market in Melbourne is a concern,” she says.

For investment, she favours ”the groovy, funky areas with a younger demographic”, such as South Yarra, Richmond and Middle Park.

”The other opportunity is the old house on the corner block in suburbs like Cheltenham where there is the potential for multi-residences down the track,” she says. ”Investors can rent them out for five years or so with a view to either selling the site or developing themselves. People are saying they’ll build one residence for themselves and sell the second for profit.”

Braddick says buyers should be aware that states are likely to perform differently. ”NSW has the advantage of being the most undersupplied market but it’s tricky to look at particular sectors.” He says if the construction and resources sectors continue to boom, this could support the upper end of the market, while soft conditions in retail and manufacturing could dampen the middle and lower parts of the market.

”But ultimately it will come back to the ‘atmospherics’ – the number of properties on the market, current sentiment and so on,” he says. ”Over the short term there could be significant increases or falls but on average the market is unlikely to achieve much.”

A GREATER FOCUS ON YIELD

To a large extent, buying a home is a lifestyle decision and you can afford to trade off slower capital growth against the desire for a place to call your own.

But if you’re considering putting your hard-earned money to work in investment property, you’ll need to be hard-headed.

Braddick says investors in the 2000s ”got away with non-focused property buying because most prices were going up.” But with capital gains likely to play less of a role, investors will need to focus on yield for more of their return.

”You need to look at the yields now and what they will be in the future,” Bennett says. ”The initial yields in the inner city may be lower but newer stock can balance that with depreciation allowances and if you get income growth, the yield will bounce back.”

Lawless says units have outperformed detached dwellings in terms of value growth in recent years.

”This is probably due to both improving demand related to price sensitivity [units are generally more affordable than houses] as well as the fact that units generally provide higher rental yields than houses. With more focus on urban renewal and higher densities around transport hubs and employment nodes, we would expect that well-located units will continue to be a popular choice for investors,” he says.

”Another tactic that is likely to remain popular among investors is buying within close proximity to the capital cities. The 10-kilometre to 15-kilometre ring should continue to provide reasonable housing demand with tight supply constraints. Public and private transport options are becoming even more important and these factors will be one of the primary drivers of long-term capital gain.”

Oliver says investors might also want to consider looking outside the residential box.

”You can argue that if you’re going to buy investment property, you’d be better off looking at commercial property where the yields are higher and there is less evidence of overvaluation,” he says. ”Listed property trusts have gone back to their roots after going through a more speculative period and are offering yields of 5.5 per cent to 6 per cent, unlisted property trusts and syndicates are an option [though you have to be careful], or you can invest directly in something like a shop, warehouse or strata office.”

The new rules to property success

When it comes to gearing, less is more. ”It’s not what you own but what you owe,” Shane Oliver, of AMP Capital Investors, says.

Think affordability. The more expensive your property, the smaller the list of potential buyers or renters.

Buy well. What’s the point of being in a weak market if you don’t get to dictate terms? ”You make money in property when you buy, not when you sell,” Ana Bennett, of Lachlan Partners, says.

Don’t count on making a quick buck. ”If you think you’re getting a bargain, you’re usually not,” Bennett says. She says property should be regarded as a long-term investment. ”Particularly for investors, you have to ask whether you can really afford it,” she says. ”There’s no point struggling and realising you have to sell in two to three years.”

If you’re investing, think income. In the absence of strong capital growth, investment returns will increasingly depend on a decent, and growing, rental yield.

Do your homework. While average returns might not look promising, the property market is highly segmented and demand for the right properties will remain strong. Look for properties that are in undersupply, not a dime a dozen. ”I would be wary of locations that have recently experienced a large surge in home values or where rental yields are lower than average,” RP Data’s Tim Lawless says. ”Areas where housing can easily become oversupplied should also be treated with some caution.”

Understand that property prices can be volatile – especially in the short term. Just because your house price isn’t quoted on the news each night doesn’t mean it can’t go up and down. ”If you put a large proportion of your money into a particular investment, it is a risky position, particularly if you’re also leveraged,” Michael Sherris, from the Australian School of Business, says. ”There may be half the volatility that you get with shares but people think there’s no volatility at all.”

Look for areas with strong population growth, strong demand and good infrastructure that is improving.

Think outside the box. Will it be possible to add value to the property in the future? If residential property doesn’t stack up, what about commercial?

Don’t expect history to repeat itself.

Story by Annette Sampson, source: www.domain.com.au

From the Boardroom – 2012 Summer Edition

To read the full story, please click on the link!

Apartments and multi-storey homes are about to get a little safer for children thanks to a rule change around windows in new buildings.

The Australian Building Codes Board has ruled that all windows in new homes and apartments that are more than two metres off the ground must be either fitted with window locks that stop the window being opened more than 125mm (12.5 cm), or must have reinforced screens to prevent children from falling from a height.

The changes will be included in the National Construction Code from May 2013.

The Australian Building Codes Board estimates that owners and builders will choose to fit 80 per cent of windows with locks, and the remaining 20 with reinforced screens. Its research priced window locks from $20 – $70 each, and strong screens from $130 a square metre, putting the average cost of a suitable screen at $130.

Ron De Vere, a project manager with the Australian Building Codes Board, says the decision was made after wide consultation with industry, and with fire authorities across the nation.

De Vere said an economic analysis that took into account the cost of installing locks and screens versus society’s cost of treating children who had fallen from windows showed that the broader cost-benefit of the changes was around zero.

However, "the board was swayed by the risk to children and the danger of children falling out of buildings", he says. "It’s a bit like the pool safety issue, the child drowning … the value of a child’s life is so crucial."

Danny Cass, a professor of paediatric surgery at the Children’s Hospital Westmead, has welcomed the changes saying the recognition that children could access windows and easily climb or fall out of them was a win for commonsense.

"Before, they thought a kid couldn’t climb that high but … they often pull things up to it, or beds are placed next to it," Cass says.

Just a like a pool safety fence though, children will only be protected when adults remember to lock the windows and check that the reinforced screens are in good order.

The board backed away from an initial proposal to mandate window guards for windows two stories or above in all domestic dwellings.

It also a decided against that a proposal to increase to one metre the minimum floor-to-sill height of openable windows in rooms that are four metres from the ground outside.

The minimum floor-to-sill height will effectively remain at 865mm as the current provisions require a barrier of 865mm be in place to any openable window that is more than four metres from the ground, and it is common practice to place the bottom of the window at that height, using the wall itself to create the barrier.

The floor-to-sill height requirement will remain even where a lockable or removable device or screen is in use – in case the device or screen is inadvertently unlocked or removed. However, the minimum height from ground level at which the window-to-sill or barrier rule comes into play will drop from four metres to two metres after evidence showed serious injury can happen when a child falls from just two metres.

The changes will come into effect from May 2013, a timeframe the board says will allow industry to prepare for the changes.

An average of one child a week is taken to hospital in Australia after falling from a window. According to figures from the Children’s Hospital Westmead, 80 per cent of children who have fallen from a window have significant injuries, and four out of five children who fall from windows are aged under five. For information on keeping your kids safe near windows, click here.

Cass says the next challenge is making windows in existing housing and apartment stock safer for children. Cass is part of a working party on child falls at the Children’s Hospital Westmead. The group will meet again this month to explore further recommendations for existing properties.

Story by Carolyn Boyd, source: www.domain.com.au

The preliminary capital city dwelling value index result for December was -0.2% (s.a.) following an upwardly revised +0.4% rise in dwelling values in November (was +0.1%). Revised regional house values for November increased from +0.3% to +0.5%. Sydney housing has been the nation’s best performer with dwelling values up 0.4% in December and by 0.7% over the quarter (s.a.).

In the generally seasonally weak month of December, the preliminary RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index result for capital city dwelling values was -0.2 per cent (s.a.). Low sales volumes in December mean that this number will likely see a more significant revision than normal.

The November result from the RP Data-Rismark index for dwellings in capital cities has revised up from +0.1 per cent (s.a.) to +0.4 per cent (s.a.) based on additional sales information. This marks the largest month-on-month improvement in Australian home values since May 2010.

The RP Data-Rismark ‘rest-of-state’ index, which covers Australia’s regional markets, has also revised up in November from +0.3 per cent to +0.5 per cent (s.a.). This is the most significant increase in regional house values since November 2010.

Over the December quarter, Australia’s capital city home values declined by -0.5 per cent (s.a.).

RP Data’s director of research Tim Lawless, said, “The December quarter was the year’s smallest quarterly decline. According to our index, capital city home values fell by -1.5 per cent (s.a.) in the March quarter, and by a further -0.8 per cent (s.a.) in each of the June and September quarters. This rate of decline had decelerated to -0.5% by the final quarter of 2011.”

In 2011, Australian capital city dwelling values experienced a capital loss of about three and a half per cent. Regional house values fared a little better, correcting by around three per cent. This compared to the 14-15 per cent decline in Australian shares. Adding in rents, the gross total return to Australian property investors was slightly less than one per cent over 2011.

Rismark’s managing director Ben Skilbeck said, “The month of December is characterised by a significant lull in activity and the preliminary index results have likely been influenced by some more volatile Melbourne and Perth estimates. We expect to get better clarity on the monthly movements as more information is reported.”

“Sydney currently has the largest volume of reported sales in December. In seasonally-adjusted terms, Sydney dwelling values rose by 0.4 per cent in the month of December. In the December quarter, Sydney dwelling values are up a total of 0.7 per cent (s.a.)” Mr Skilbeck said.

RP Data’s Tim Lawless observed that rental markets continued to strengthen in December.

“Weekly rents across the capital cities were up 1.0 per cent over the December quarter and are now 6.3 per cent higher than at the same time last year.”

“These higher rental rates combined with the slide in property values have improved investors’ yields. The average capital city dwelling is now offering a gross rental return of 4.6 per cent after a consistent trend upwards since mid-2010 when the typical capital city dwelling was yielding just 4.1 per cent. Darwin and Canberra are the highest yielding locations for property investors while Hobart, Brisbane, and Sydney provide gross yields that are better than average,” Mr Lawless said.

On the outlook for the year ahead, Rismark’s Ben Skilbeck commented, “We expect that the RBA’s interest rate cuts in the final two months of 2011 will lend further momentum to housing activity as transaction volumes pick up over February and March after the seasonally slow months of December and January. If financial market pricing for substantial additional RBA rate cuts proves accurate, we could see a stronger-than-expected bounce-back in housing conditions.”

“Housing affordability in Australia has experienced a striking improvement in recent times. While disposable household incomes on a per household basis rose by five per cent over the year to September 2011, Australian dwelling values have declined by 3.4 per cent since September 2010. As a result of the RBA’s rate cuts borrowers can now get fixed- and variable-rate home loans as low as 5.9 per cent and 6.14 per cent. Rismark’s research shows that disposable incomes per household have risen about 15 per cent further than Australian dwelling values since the end of 2003. This helps account for the decline in Rismark’s national dwelling price-to-income ratio, which is as low as its been since 2003” Mr Skilbeck said.

RP Data’s Tim Lawless added, “While global uncertainty and a stagnant local labour market could weigh on the consumer’s mindset, we are nevertheless observing improvements in monthly housing finance commitments. RP Data’s leading indicators on average selling times and vendor discounts are also starting to look healthier. There is no doubt that additional interest rate relief in 2012 would afford a very welcome cushion to the housing market.”

As we head into 2012 pondering where the housing market is headed – will it be down 10 per cent as some commentators are expecting, or will others be on the money with predictions of 5-7 per cent growth – there is some interesting news emerging about home loans.

Out today are figures showing mortgage holders are increasingly being lured by fixed rates.

Despite predictions about one, two or even three rate cuts coming over the next six months, a growing number of homeowners are locking in their rates now. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows fixed loans grew from 10.6 per cent of new housing loans before the most recent rate cut in November to 11.1 per cent.

And mortgage broker AFG reveals that 19.2 per cent of loans arranged through its business in December were issued at fixed rates, a big jump from 8.2 per cent six months earlier.

An odd move you may think given all the predictions are for official rates to fall further this year. But CommSec economist Savanth Sebastian argues people are simply getting in at what they can afford.

“It’s more about ensuring you can purchase a place within your budget and within your limits," he says. "While the risks are to the downside [for rates to fall], I think the fixed rate market has already priced in a couple more rate cuts,” he says.

In addition “even though the Reserve Bank will cut rates, the banks need to pass it on. So the fixed market is looking very attractive, not only do you need a couple more rate cuts [for variable rates to match fixed] but you need it all to be passed on as well to justify where the fixed market is.”

Many homebuyers may also be wary that should there be a swift change in the economy, rates can easily shoot back up. 

“We saw straight after the GFC how rates rose, it certainly would have caught some home buyers that were on the edge in terms of repayments, so at least this way they can sleep easy,” says Sebastian.

Further news on the home loan front could point to a slightly more positive year for property than last, where we saw prices fall across the board. Australian Bureau of Statistics figures have revealed that the number of new owner-occupier housing loans rose by 1.4 per cent in November while the value of loans rose by 2.2 per cent.

However, home loans aren’t being drawn down – rather potential buyers are simply getting their finance sorted and sitting back and waiting until the right time to buy.

So while for the past eight months there’s been consecutive jumps in the number of home loans being approved, in November the value of loans that had actually been drawn down was two per cent lower than a year ago, and commitments not advanced were almost 11 per cent higher than the previous year.

With all the concern about the state of the US and European economies, it’s little wonder buyers have been taking a cautious approach.

So just what will entice all these cashed-up potential home buyers to jump? Could a February rate cut be enough?

CommSec’s Sebastian thinks so. “Even the thought of rate cuts should prompt activity levels to increase over the next few months,” he says.

Story source: www.domain.com.au

New home sales jumped in November in response to the Reserve Bank’s interest rate cut.

The sales of new homes rose 6.8 per cent in November, following a downwardly revised increase of 2.8 per cent in October, according to the Housing Industry Association – Jeld Wen new home sales report.

While detached house sales surged 9.8 per cent, apartment sales slumped 17 per cent, HIA said today.

“Interest rate cuts, both those we’ve had and those that are still warranted, provide a … catalyst for a sustained and strong recovery in new home building conditions,” said HIA chief economist Harley Dale.

The Reserve Bank in November lowered the interest rate to 4.5 per cent from 4.75 per cent, in response to increased concerns about the European sovereign debt crisis slowing the global economy and hurting Australia’s growth.

It was the first reduction since April 2009. In December the RBA cut the key rate by another 25 basis points.

Capital city home values also posted their first monthly rise in 2011 in November, edging up 0.1 per cent seasonally adjusted, according to RPData.com.

For the year to November, however, capital city home prices fell 3.5 per cent.

"This is a healthier but not unexpected result," Dr Dale said.

"With falling interest rates, a competitive building market, and a greater availability of skilled trades amidst still very soft overall demand conditions, now is clearly a good time to build a new home for those who are financially set to take that decision.

“There is, however, a long way to go to restore new home sales volumes to acceptable levels," he said. "At present sales volumes are running at least 20 per cent below what you could conservatively call
healthy."

Sales soar in NSW

The volume of detached house sales soared 22.8 per cent in New South Wales and 11.6 per cent in Victoria. They also rose 5.7 per cent in Western Australia and 4.7 per cent in Queensland. In South Australia they fell 11.3 per cent.

Mr Dale said a full recovery in housing activity wouldn’t emerge unless the government offered well-targeted stimulus and began to reform housing planning policy to cut the barriers to new housing supply.

Measures of growth in the construction sector show that it remains under pressure, as households borrow less and real estate prices keep housing out of reach for would-be buyers.

The Australian performance of construction index for December, released today, remained under the 50 point level separating expansion from contraction for the 19th straight month even as the index rose by 1.4 points to 41 in December, helped by the resources-related construction.

Australian Industry Group director of public policy Peter Burn said the two-speed economy was visible in construction data, with "a clear divide between the expanding engineering construction sub-sector and the still-contracting commercial and residential construction sub-sectors".

House building fell 5.7 points in December to minus-32.9.

"The increased pace of contraction in the house building sub-sector in December remains deeply concerning,"  Mr Burn said.

Story by Chris Zappone www.domain.com.au

AUSTRALIAN housing markets displayed a generally resilient performance in 2011, reflecting the inherent security of residential real estate in this country, particularly when compared with housing markets in similar open-market economies.

The year was always set to be a period of correction for Australia’s housing markets following the unsustainable growth in house prices recorded through 2009 and 2010.

Between January 2009 and June 2010, Melbourne’s quarterly median house price rose by nearly 30 per cent, with Sydney’s up by almost 20 per cent over the same period. All other capitals also recorded big rises in house prices over those 18 months.

Housing affordability crashed by the end of 2010, with surging house prices and rising interest rates combining to send buyers into hibernation.

Australian Property Monitors data has revealed that capital city housing markets have generally performed encouragingly in 2011 despite the pressure on housing affordability generated in 2010 and a mixed economic performance in 2011.

The national median price for houses over the year to October 2011 fell by just 1 per cent compared with the previous year, with median unit prices rising by 1.2 per cent over the year. The 2011 result follows a 17 per cent rise in the national median house price over the year to October 2010 and a 12.2 per cent rise in the median unit price over the same period.

The best capital city performers were Melbourne and Sydney, where annual median house prices rose by 1 per cent. Darwin and Adelaide house prices were flat and Hobart down 1.5 per cent.

The worst performers over the year were Brisbane and Perth, where annual median house prices fell by 3.5 and 4.75 per cent respectively.

The unit market clearly outperformed the housing market over the year to October 2011, with Sydney recording median unit price growth of 2 per cent followed by Melbourne and Darwin up by 1 per cent. Brisbane and Perth were again the underperformers, with annual unit prices falling by 1.3 per cent and 3.5 per cent respectively.

Bureau of Statistics data confirms the solid performance by Australian housing markets in 2011, with the number of owner-occupier housing loans rising by 2.4 per cent over the 10 months ending October compared with the same period in 2010.

New South Wales was the best performer with an increase of 8 per cent, with Western Australia surprisingly in second place with growth in home loans of 7 per cent over the year, courtesy of a surge in the past three months – indicating perhaps growing late-year momentum in that market.

By contrast, the number of home loans approved in Queensland in the year to October fell by 8.4 per cent compared with the same period in 2010.

The nature and strength of Australian housing markets in 2011 was always to be determined by the underlying supply and demand characteristics of individual markets and the strength of national and local economies.

In addition to the affordability barriers created by the prices surge and interest rate rises of 2009 and 2010, housing markets have had to encounter unexpected headwinds in 2011. The impact of the central Queensland and Brisbane floods was not restricted to the local housing markets. National economic output was affected through reduced coal exports and the cost of the reconstruction levy. Higher prices for fruit and vegetables also affected household budgets nationally.

The impact of catastrophic natural disasters on the national psyche and confidence cannot be underestimated, particularly given Australia’s recent propensity for financial conservatism, especially when it comes to buying or borrowing.

The Japanese earthquake and associated tsunami in March also contributed to lower economic growth and reduced consumer confidence.

Stalling economic growth in 2011 was also a product of continued mixed performances by various industry sectors, particularly retail, manufacturing, tourism and construction. As a consequence, all capitals recorded rises in unemployment through mid-year. All these factors combined to subdue consumer capacity and confidence and consequently dampen home buying activity through 2011.

Most Australian capital city housing markets are, however, set to record growth in median prices over 2012 as the national economy gathers strength. The Australian economy is primed to expand strongly on the back of a significant resources boom with the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development predicting gross domestic product will increase by 4 per cent over the year.

Melbourne, Adelaide and Hobart will be the underperformers in 2012, with median house price growth of between zero and 5 per cent.

Melbourne’s balanced housing supply and demand mix offers buyers a wide choice and it remains the most tenant-friendly capital city rental market. Affordability barriers, however, remain for home buyers.

With the Victorian economy showing signs of running out of puff, particularly as the recent construction boom abates, the housing market is set to drift sideways though 2012. The possibility remains of some growth in median house prices by the end of 2012 as the impact of a strong national economy filters through.

Dr Andrew Wilson is senior economist for Australian Property Monitors.

Source: BusinessDay

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