The Reserve Bank of Australia board has kept interest rates on hold, leaving the official cash rate at 4.25 percent.

The shock move comes as many parts of the economy continue to struggle with the side effects of the mining boom.

Data published yesterday showed retail trade contracted 0.1 percent in December, traditionally the sector’s strongest month.

In anticipation of a rate cut, the Prime Minister and Treasurer earlier urged banks to pass on the cut in full.

But the board’s decision means mortgage holders and borrowers will have to wait another month in hope of further interest rate relief.

The CEO of mortgage comparison company RateCity, Damian Smith, told ninemsn the surprise announcement does not spell impending doom for mortgagees.

"Borrowers shouldn’t be disheartened that the Reserve Bank kept the cash rate at 4.25 percent today because the sluggish home loans market means the ball is in your court," Mr Smith said.

"We’re seeing lenders offering discounts of up to one percent off their standard variable rates for basic home loans and many lenders — including the big four banks — have said they are willing to negotiate to retain their share of the home loan market."

The Australian dollar rose sharply immediately after the news, up more than 0.7 of a US cent.

At 1432 (AEDT), the currency was at 107.79 US cents, compared with 107.06 US cents just before the RBA announced its decision at 1430 (AEST) today.

Source: www.ninemsn.com.au

Ongoing discount loans lose momentum

Borrowers’ preference for fixed rate home loans is continuing at an unrelenting pace regardless of recent cash rate cuts, national loan approval data from Mortgage Choice has revealed.

Fixed rate loans accounted for 24% of all new home loan approvals during December 2011, up from 21% in November and well above the 12-month average of 15%. Demand for this loan type has risen for seven consecutive months, increasing 13 percentage points since May 2011.

Company spokesperson Belinda Williamson said, “Consecutive cash rate cuts in November and December 2011 have not swayed Australian borrowers’ desire for fixed rate loans.”

“It is possible borrowers’ need for certainty around their home loan repayments, coupled with the affordability of fixed rate loans are the driving forces behind demand for this loan type.

“During December fixed rates were significantly lower than variable rates, in some cases the difference was one percentage point or more.

“Our loan data shows fixed rates are now more in demand than they have been in over three and a half years at the expense of variable rates, which have lost popularity among new borrowers.

“Customer demand for variable rate loans fell from 79% to 76%, well down on the 12-month average of 85%. The most popular variable rate home loan with new borrowers, ongoing discount rate loans, slipped from 44% to 41%, also well below the 12-month average of 35%.”

Basic variable loan demand rose marginally to 15% of all approvals in December, up from 14% in November while standard variable loan demand fell slightly to 16% from 17%. Interest in line of credit loans dropped to 3% from 4% and the uptake of introductory rate loans was steady at 1%.

For more information visit: www.mortgagechoice.com.au

Home loans by value fell in October and remained flat over the year, suggesting the housing sector remains stagnant.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) said on Monday that total housing finance by value fell 2.5 per cent in October, seasonally adjusted, to $20.458 billion.

The ABS data also showed that the value of home loans was largely unchanged from October 2010, when it was reported at $20.593 billion.

The number of home loans approved in October 2011 rose 0.7 per cent.

National Australia Bank chief economist Robert Henderson said Monday’s data showed the housing market was still deteriorating.

Mr Henderson said it was a fairly dismal report on the housing market, with falling lending in value terms and construction and investment lending both weak.

Recent data, including the national accounts figures released last week, have highlighted the weakness of the housing sector.

"It is clear that over the foreseeable future Australia will fall well short of building the number of new homes required for both owner-occupiers and renters," Housing Industry Association chief economist Harley Dale said.

"Amidst the growing risks to our economy from the situation in Europe, now is the time to be providing stimulus to the new home building sector while at the same time reinvigorating the housing supply reform process, which currently lies dormant."

Commonwealth Bank of Australia senior economist Michael Workman said Monday’s ABS figures were a little softer than he expected.

"If you go back and look at the data over the last 15 years or so, housing credit growth still remains exceptionally weak.

"So, for the housing market, it’s strongly biased towards the buyers rather than sellers and it looks like it’s going to stay that way."

Mr Workman said the Australian dollar and local bond futures were largely unaffected by the data.

RBC Capital Markets fixed income and currency strategist Michael Turner said the October housing figures were a little dated.

"China has already reported trade data for November, and the finance data do not reflect the November and December (monetary) policy easing (in Australia)," he said.

"As such, there are limited implications for markets.

"We expect more timely domestic data to better reflect the softening in global growth in coming months, which should justify further easing (of interest rates) and a move to accommodative territory in 2012."

ICAP senior economist Adam Carr said the housing data showed the Australian lending market was recovering even before the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut interest rates.

The cash rate is now at 4.25 per cent after two consecutive 25-basis point cuts in November and December.

"The 50-basis points worth of cuts we’ve seen will likely see lending growth accelerate over coming months, which will start to add to the strong private demand numbers we’ve seen to date," Mr Carr said.

Story source: www.ninemsn.com.au

The Reserve Bank of Australia board has cut the official interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25 per cent, giving mortgage holders and borrowers a pre-Christmas reprieve.

The RBA announced the rate cut at 2.30pm AEDT today following the board’s final meeting for the year.

It’s the second interest rate cut in as many months after the RBA lowered the cash rate on Melbourne Cup day in November.

In a statement issued with the announcement, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said there had been "considerable turbulence" in financial markets and said financing conditions had become more difficult.

"This, together with precautionary behaviour by firms and households, means that the likelihood of a further material slowing in global growth has increased," Mr Stevens said in a statement accompanying the decision on Tuesday.

Economics analyst Ross Greenwood said Europe’s debt crisis would have been a significant factor in the RBA’s decision.

"The Reserve Bank indicated that it is still concerned about the European economic situation and the prospects of a global slowdown hurting Australia and its export markets," Greenwood told ninemsn.

While it’s good news for mortgage holders and borrowers, Greenwood cautioned consumers not to expect the banks to pass on the full interest rate.

Analysts were divided about whether the RBA would cut the rate today, with a survey of 14 economists conducted by AAP revealing seven tipping a cut, and seven predicting rates would stay on hold for another month.

Story source: www.ninemsn.com.au

Economists are divided on whether borrowers will get a second interest rate cut in as many months on Tuesday.

Seven of the 14 economists surveyed by AAP say the RBA will cut the cash rate to 4.25 per cent from 4.5 per cent on December 6.

On Melbourne Cup day, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut the cash rate from 4.75 per cent, saying that recent information suggested inflation had been contained.

With inflation no longer a problem, the bias for the RBA is now firmly leaning towards rate cuts, with 10 of the 14 economists forecasting rate cuts by the middle of 2012.

Citigroup head of economics Paul Brennan is expecting the RBA to cut rates on Tuesday, despite expectations of strong economic growth in the September quarter.

"We see this as a policy of least regret given that the outlook for global growth has continued to weaken in the past month to well below trend," Mr Brennan said.

"We see scope to lower the cash rate to the bottom of the neutral range over the next few months, which would imply a cash rate of four per cent over the next three months."

The biggest risk to economic growth comes from Europe, which may well go into recession, or start another financial crisis, as several members of the euro struggle to meet debt repayments.

There are also local risks to economic growth.

In the past month the RBA, Treasury and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) have cut economic growth forecasts for 2012.

In addition to that, official figures for October showed a 10.7 per cent fall in building approvals and retail spending only rising 0.2 per cent.

On the other hand Australia’s mining boom is still going strong, with the sector making its biggest ever contribution to economic growth.

Nomura Australia chief economist Stephen Roberts said he doesn’t expect the cash rate to move for the foreseeable future unless something bad happens overseas.

"My forecast is that they are going to leave it at 4.5 per cent," he said.

"I’m assuming they will hold it neutral all the way through to the end of 2012 but my proviso is if Europe generally does go to hell in a handbasket, then they can drop interest rates a long way."

NAB senior economist Spiros Papadopoulos said the RBA won’t cut on Tuesday but by early next year the pressure will build for another rate cut.

"Obviously there’s a risk that they might cut interest rates next week, given everything that’s been happening offshore in the last couple of weeks," he said.

"On balance, given the fact that the domestic economy has been holding up okay we don’t think they need to rush in to cutting rates."

Story source: www.ninemsn.com.au

With the Reserve Bank serving up a rate cut, it’s a smart move to keep your repayments at the same level. Many lenders don’t automatically reduce your repayments when rates fall.

That doesn’t mean, of course, that you’re not getting a cut in interest rates – just that your weekly or fortnightly (or monthly, but don’t pay monthly, it will cost you more in the long run, as explained below) repayments stay the same.

That’s smart because automatically you’re paying an extra $45-$60 (or whatever it equates to on your mortgage) a month, which will see you get out of the debt-jail sooner.

And with house prices stagnant or falling, the one smart way to make money out of your property is pay it off more quickly and reduce the overall cost of acquiring it.

It has, of course, always been the best way to do things. Ask any pre-baby boomer and they will tell you that.

But in the heady debt-fuelled days of recent past it seemed too easy that you could buy a place, sit it out, burn up the redraw facility on the loan on cars, clothes and overseas holidays, and still double your money in a decade. However, after such big run-ups in house prices, everything has softened and we’re not likely to see similar increases in home prices anytime soon.

Not that a slowing housing market is necessarily bad – despite the general pall it throws over things. Investors may want those days to return but most people can see that steady prices are a lot healthier.

Houses, after all, are primarily for living in. There are other money-making vehicles out there that don’t put the cost of basic shelter out of the average person’s reach.

And the slowing housing market also – in part – took the pressure off the Reserve Bank to keep hiking rates after last year’s Melbourne Cup.

When it comes to the cost of acquiring a home, you can do it the expensive way – borrowing the money (as most of us have to do), or the really, really expensive way (borrowing money and taking forever to pay it off).

The Figures

Let’s assume you’re paying 7 per cent on your mortgage now and you’ve borrowed $500,000 to buy your place. Pay it off monthly over 25 years and you’ll fork out a total of about $1,060,147.

Add another $60 a month to your repayments and you’ll be up for a total over the life of the loan of $1,031,230, saving $28,918.

Pay down an extra $200 a month, or about $50 a week, and suddenly you’re up for a six-figure total instead of a seven, of about $975,321. You’ll also save an impressive $84,842. And you’ll walk away from the shackles of that mortgage more than three years earlier.

Of course your mortgage might not be $500,000, so to find out how it works in your situation check out some of the online calculators such as this. It’s worth bookmarking the site and going back to it every time you need a bit of motivation to pay down the mortgage faster.

And another trick – now well known by many – is to pay fortnightly and not monthly. You’ll end up thousands of dollars ahead by taking advantage of the fact there’s 12 months in the year, but 26 fortnights, meaning you make one fortnight’s repayment more per year than you would if you were paying monthly.

Story by Carolyn Boyd www.domain.com.au

Homeowners have been granted a long awaited reprieve, with the Reserve Bank opting to drop interest rates by 25 basis points.

The cut continues what is becoming a tradition, with the Reserve Bank changing the cash rate on Melbourne Cup Day for the sixth year in a row.

It is also the first time in a year that rates have shifted in either direction, with last year’s race tarnished by a surprise 25 basis point bump.

The Reserve Bank’s decision comes after the TD Securities-Melbourne Institute data revealed inflationary pressure was at a 19-month low.

The Institute’s inflation gauge showed a 0.1 percent rise in headline and trimmed mean measures, prompted largely by a massive drop in fruit and vegetable prices.

The rise keeps inflation at a 19-month low of 2.6 percent, well within the Reserve Bank’s target band.

The Reserve Bank last cut interest rates in April 2009. Following a steady climb in 2010, interest rates have stayed on hold since last November.

The last time the Reserve Bank stayed put on Melbourne Cup day was in 2005, midway through the cash rate’s year-long stint at 5.5 percent.

Story source: www.ninemsn.com.au

The central bank has decided to keep the cash rate unchanged this month and has opened the door for possible future cuts.

The decision was expected, with all 15 economists surveyed last week by AAP predicting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would keep rates on hold at 4.75 per cent on Tuesday.

The central bank’s board last raised the rate from 4.5 per cent in November 2010.

But the focus was on the statement accompanying the decision, in which RBA Governor Glenn Stevens indicated he was less concerned that inflation would accelerate.

"The path for inflation may now be more consistent with the two to three per cent target in 2012 and 2013," he said.

That meant rate cuts were now on the table.

"An improved inflation outlook would increase the scope for monetary policy to provide some support to demand, should that prove necessary," Mr Stevens said.

UBS interest rate strategist Matthew Johnson said the RBA appeared to have downgraded its growth and inflation forecasts.

"I think that the bank has gone from thinking that things were too strong a couple of months ago, to being around trend now," Mr Johnson said.

"If there’s a further deteriorating, they’ll ease policy."

He said the statement prompted investors to buy bonds, on expectations that the central bank may soon cut the cash rate.

The December 10-year bond futures contract rose to 95.985 (implying a yield of 4.015 per cent) from 95.96 (4.04 per cent) just before the RBA released its statement at 1430 AEDT.

The Australian dollar dropped to a one-year low 94.65 cents after the statement.

Mr Johnson said Mr Stevens’ statement suggested the bank would be watching unemployment figures very closely, as a gauge of inflationary pressure on the economy.

"But we’re a few months away from having to make that decision."

Mr Stevens said conditions in global financial markets continued to be "very unsettled, with uncertainty increasing about both the prospects for resolution of the sovereign debt and banking problems in Europe, and the outlook for global economic growth."

However, economic activity in China and Asia was continuing to expand, he said.

CommSec chief economist Craig James said Mr Stevens’ statement showed the RBA had become more open to the possibility of lower rates.

"For the first time since the global financial crisis, the Reserve Bank has opened the possibility of rates being trimmed to support the economy," Mr James said.

He said the focus now shifts to October 26, when the Australian Bureau of Statistics releases consumer price index (CPI) data for the September quarter.

The CPI is a key measure of inflation and is used by the central bank in setting its monetary policy.

HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham said the RBA’s statement was more dovish than recent ones.

"The RBA is keeping a steady hand on the wheel and is more concerned with the inflation outlook," he said.

Mr Bloxham noted that while the European and US economies were slowing, Asia, and particularly China, were going strong or, at least, easing at a steady rate.

Story source: www.ninemsn.com.au

CUP Day punters could have an extra reason to cheer today, with the odds strongly in favour of the Reserve Bank keeping interest rates on hold for a sixth consecutive month.

But any sigh of relief from borrowers could be short-lived, with some pundits predicting that the RBA will still send rates north by Christmas. And analysts are divided over whether Australia’s big banks will be forced to raise rates independently if the RBA chooses to keep its powder dry today.

Nomura’s Victor German said it was clear banks wanted to raise rates, but, from a political point of view, it would now be "very difficult".

He named Commonwealth as the bank most likely to go it alone, but said the chance of an independent rise was "diminishing" with the new Senate inquiry into banking competition.

Southern Cross Equities analyst TS Lim agreed that political pressure made it tougher for banks to raise rates but said increasing funding pressures meant banks were likely to act anyway.

"Once CBA does it the rest will follow," he said.

Futures market betting on the likelihood of an official rise has plummeted in the past week after benign inflation data dampened expectations that the RBA would lift the cash rate to 4.75 per cent.

Market odds last night reflected just 26 per cent chance of a rate hike today, despite new data revealing an uptick in price pressure in October.

Commonwealth Bank chief economist Michael Blythe said a rates pause today would be "probably only a temporary reprieve".

He said economic data in the next month – including critical growth, job and capital spending indicators – could convince the RBA to hike in December.

The TD Securities-Melbourne Institute monthly inflation gauge showed that on an underlying or "trimmed mean" basis – a measure used by the RBA – inflation rose by 0.2 per cent after flat results in August and September.

On a yearly basis, inflation grew at 3.1 per cent – outside the RBA’s target range of 2 to 3 per cent.

Pushing the gauge higher were price rises for car fuel, fruit and vegetables, and insurance services.

Story by Rachel Hewitt – with Peter Taylor www.heraldsun.com.au

Investors in the real estate investment trust (REIT) sector are preparing for a bumpy last quarter of calendar 2010 caused by rising interest rates and the next round of office and retail property valuations.

Property trust analysts have predicted another round of consolidation among the trusts is not far away as predators look to take advantage of the continued low share prices for many of the listed trusts.

Deutsche Bank’s Matthew Bertram has earmarked Mirvac’s residential business as a prime target for any consolidation within the REIT sector.

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”In our view, Mirvac’s residential brand would be saleable, if REITs were to enter a consolidation phase,” he said.

”If Mirvac’s return on capital remains below its weighted average cost of capital in the medium term, on our estimates a sale of the residential division would be accretive to funds from operations, reduce debt and potentially facilitate a return of capital to shareholders.”

Other deals being worked on are the sale or internalisation of the management rights of the ING Group’s listed trusts, while Stockland is closer to securing the retirement group Aevum.

Investors are debating whether Stockland will launch a bid for FKP’s retirement assets.

Reflecting the fluctuating sentiment among REIT investors was the S&P/ASX 300 A-REIT Accumulation Index, which underperformed the broader equity market by 5.5 per cent, returning a negative 0.9 per cent for September. That compared with August, when the same index outperformed the broader market by 3.5 per cent, returning 3.5 per cent over the month.

The managing director of Maxim Asset Management, Winston Sammut, said over the past year to 18 months, Australian REITs had been concentrating on improving their balance sheets as well as refinancing their debt facilities.

Where possible, a number have been actively disposing of ”non-core assets”. As a result, most of the A-REITs have moved back to basics, becoming the traditional defensive asset class it should always have been.

Mr Sammut said that as a consequence of these changes, the longer-term outlook for A-REITs was positive.

”Over the short term, we expect the sector to trade around current levels before moving ahead as investors become more comfortable with the reformation of the A-REITs that has taken place over the last year or so,” Mr Sammut said.

He added the recently launched Maxim Income Fund benefited from the volatile financial markets, generating a return of 3.29 per cent from July 15 (the date of the last distribution) to September 30th.

Story by Carolyn Cummins COMMERCIAL PROPERTY EDITOR www.smh.com.au

Australia’s economy is the envy of the developed world.

Not only did we escape the global downturn with hardly a scratch, but we’re in a very strong position to withstand any more external economic shocks.

We have interest rates back up to average levels and government debt at much lower levels than any of our overseas counterparts.

This means that if the US fell into recession again, or even if China’s economy took a turn for the worse, Australia still has the levers to stimulate the local economy.

When it comes to housing, the strength of the local market has overseas investors and commentators all worked up, even given the moderation in price growth experienced over the last quarter.

Foreign financial markets are convinced that Australian housing is the next big bubble that is about to burst.

Many major retail and investment banks recently released their perspectives on the situation and they all came to the same conclusion – there is no speculative “bubble” in the local property market.

Even if you subscribe to the view that Australian housing is relatively expensive, the sequence of events that would need to occur to spark heavy prices falls is unlikely.

During the global financial crisis Australian property suffered only a 4 to 5 per cent fall in price.

In the US, the 30 per cent fall in property prices was driven by subprimehome lending, and the typical oversupply that accompanies high levels of speculation.

In Britain a similar size fall in prices was driven by a domestic bank credit crunch that was a result of a global credit crisis. Both led to a combination of a collapse in demand and distressed selling.

In Australia we have no subprime lending sector to talk about and a significant undersupply of new housing.We have interest rates at levels higher compared with other international economies, so the Reserve Bank could respond to any overseas credit rationing by dropping interest rates again.

Even in the extreme event of another economic storm which  would force banks to withhold new lending, it is unlikely to lead to a wave of distressed selling.

Homeowners with a mortgage are in a strong position. A report from one of the big four banks, considered to be Australia’s largest home loan provider,  stated that its average home loan to home-value ratio is only 43 per cent and that 70 per cent of customers are paying their mortgage in advance, and are an average of nine payments ahead.

Australia has an undersupply of housing because of the natural increase in population and immigration.We have an economy where unemployment is approaching historic lows and incomes are set to rise strongly.

If we also take into account strong gross domestic product, retail sales and consumer sentiment indicators, and low mortgage arrears and delinquency rates, doomsayers will continue to be off the mark when it comes to predictions of house price collapses in Australia.

Anthony Ishac is the general manager of the Fairfax Media-owned Australian Property Monitors.

COMMONWEALTH Bank’s global mission to reassure investors about the health of the Australian property market continues to attract attention, with fresh claims the bank had been selectively quoting data.

Online investment forums and housing blogs were alive with talk yesterday that an 18-page presentation used by the bank had replaced unfavourable housing affordability figures for Australia’s capitals with ones showing housing costs were not out of step globally.

One slide compared Australian housing affordability with several international cities, citing figures from US-based urban planning research house Demographia and investment bank UBS. It showed housing in Sydney and Melbourne was more affordable than in cities such as San Francisco, New York and Vancouver. But the slide used UBS data exclusively for the Australian cities, and Demographia data exclusively for the others.

A spokesman for CBA yesterday dismissed the claims, saying the information contained in the specific slide was prepared by UBS and the bank had no input into the numbers. A UBS spokesman said the investment bank conducted a ”bottom-up” analysis of Australian housing prices relative to income, based on deeper information compiled by the Australian Taxation Office.

The Demographia figures relied on Australian Bureau of Statistics numbers.

The CBA presentation is aimed at heading off mounting global concerns that the Australian property market is behaving like a bubble. Hedge funds have been circling local bank stocks betting the property market is overvalued and a collapse in prices will cause steep lending losses for banks.

US investment guru Jeremy Grantham recently said Australia had an ”unmistakable housing bubble” and prices would need to pull back sharply to return to trends. CBA said such views were based on incomplete analysis. It also pointed out that population growth and excess demand had been a key driver of price appreciation – factors unlikely to reverse in the near term.

Source: Story by Eric Johnston -The Age Melbourne

Mortgage holders can breathe easy for another month after the Reserve Bank yesterday decided not to increase interest rates.

In a sign that the Reserve Bank thinks the economy is bubbling along nicely, it opted to keep rates on hold at 4.5 per cent.

Each 0.25 per cent interest rate rise adds another $50 to the monthly cost of an average mortgage. Australian mortgage holders are already paying about $300 more per month in repayments than they were a year ago.

Mortgage holders on variable interest rates are being charged about 7.4 per cent by their lenders.
With the drawn out Federal election, the property market has remained steady in recent weeks and a slower than usual start to the Spring selling season is predicted.

The Reserve Bank of Australia decided to leave interest rates on hold at 4.5% in June as they observe the impact that recent rate rises are having on the Australian economy. This is particularly important as Europe tries to deal with its sovereign debt issues. The RBA is paying most attention to the health of the global economy and how it may impact Australia.

For the year to March 2010, the Australian economy showed solid growth, expanding by 2.7%. This is significant when compared to the small 0.7% growth in the previous year. Economists predict a positive outlook with growth forecast to be around 3.5% for the coming year.

Property clearance rates in Melbourne have certainly eased in the past few months from the mid to high 80′s to 65% at present. Stock levels are at a record high for the time of the year. Despite this, our Street News subscribers have indicated that property sales and prices are still strong and that buyer levels at opens are still very good.

Leading industry forecaster, BIS Shrapnel, predicts a modest growth in the Melbourne market over the next three years. "Price performance will be patchy, although we expect the overall shortage of dwellings will prevent a fall in the median house price. On the other hand, price growth will remain very limited due to the rising interest rate pressuring affordability.

Our forecast is for Melbourne’s median house price to rise by a total of 11 per cent over the three year period to June 2013, or a modest 3.5 per cent per annum".

By Peter Sarmas, Managing Director, Street News