The Reserve Bank of Australia has cut interest rates by 50 basis points in an unexpected move that should provide welcome relief to many homeowners.

The reduction takes the official cash rate to 3.75 percent.

Damian Smith CEO of financial comparison site RateCity called the RBA’s decision "a very big move".

"They haven’t moved rates this far since the depths of the Global Financial Crisis," Mr Smith told ninemsn.

"This cut will help thousands of households, with people on a $300,000 mortgage potentially saving around $1000 per year."

But he warns that some banks may be unwilling to pass on the rate cut in full.

"It’s unlikely that all lenders will pass on the full rate cut," Mr Smith said.

"The signals from the big four banks suggest that they will try to hold on to part of this rate cut."

Mr Smith points out that while the central bank has lowered the cash rate by 50 basis points since November, "the big four banks have only passed on around 40 basis points to variable rate home loan customers".

It is the largest cut to the cash rate since a 100 basis point reduction in February 2009, and the first time the RBA has lowered the cash rate since it cut it by 25 basis points at its December board meeting.

Business lobby groups, trade unionists and some economists had called for the board of the RBA to cut rates by 50 basis points to help ailing retailers, manufacturers and the stubborn housing market.

Story source: www.ninemsn.com.au

Australia’s housing sector has called on the reserve bank to deliver a 50 basis point interest rate cut after a survey showed new home sales have fallen to their lowest level in more than a decade.

The Housing Industry Association (HIA), which represents the residential building industry, says new home sales dropped 9.4 per cent, seasonally adjusted, in March 2012, their lowest level in more than 10 years.

Multi-unit sales slumped 6.4 per cent over the same period.

HIA chief economist Harley Dale called on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to deliver a 50 basis point interest rate cut at its board meeting on Tuesday.

An AAP survey of 16 economists on Friday showed all expected the RBA to cut the cash rate 25 basis points, to 4.00 per cent, this week.

However, Mr Dale said a larger cut was needed to revive the housing sector.

"The bank needs to send a clear signal that it is back on the case of assisting an economy that is clearly weaker than it anticipated in 2012," said Harley Dale.

"It is not too late to turn the situation around and prevent new housing from revisiting a GFC (global financial crisis) low.

"Interest rate cuts, while no panacea, can provide substantial assistance in restoring confidence and activity."

The survey of Australia’s 100 largest builders found Queensland suffered the biggest decline with new home sales down 15.3 per cent, followed by Western Australia, down 12 per cent, and New South Wales, down 9.7 per cent.

Story source: http://finance.ninemsn.com.au

Foreign investors have “very odd” views about Australian property and fret that housing prices may yet collapse, according to a senior Australian banking executive.

“Overseas investors have a very odd set of views about Australian property prices,” Phil Chronican, ANZ’s chief executive of its Australian operations, said today.

“They on one hand look at the stability and take a lot of comfort from it. The other is they cannot believe Australia was able to not have a property price collapse.”
Questions about the health of Australia’s property market continue to surface in talks ANZ has with investors overseas more than four years after the financial crisis battered real estate markets in the US and UK, Mr Chronican told the American Chamber of Commerce in Melbourne.
Australia’s capital city home prices have lost 4.4 per cent in the year to March, and the outlook remains subdued.

While home prices have turned positive in the past two months, building approvals and dwelling starts have plunged and a shortage of affordable homes remains.
In the wide-ranging speech, the executive in charge of ANZ’s domestic market said the mining boom was passing many Australians by, contributing to a drop off in consumer activity in recent years.
“Despite our strong economy, many Australians feel worried about our prospects in the face of uncertainty in Europe and many, particularly outside the fast lane of the mining and resource sector, feel they’re not seeing the benefits,” Mr Chronican said.

Story by Chris Zappone, www.domain.com.au

The board of the Reserve Bank of Australia has left the official cash rate at 4.25 percent for the second month in a row.

The move was widely expected with inflation at the bottom of the RBA’s target band of 2-3 percent and global economic conditions improving.

However, the news may not be met with the rapturous receptions of the past with many lenders now lifting their rates independently of the RBA.

"The rates that borrowers pay have been creeping away from the Reserve Bank’s cash rate movements since the global financial crisis," RateCity CEO Damian Smith said.

"Last month proves that all variable rate mortgage holders are vulnerable to rate hikes, regardless of what the RBA does."

The central bank left rates on hold last month but that didn’t stop the big four, ANZ, Commonwealth Bank, NAB and Westpac from lifting their standard variable mortgage rates between 0.06 and 0.10 percent.

Westpac-owned St George went even further by hiking their rates by 0.12 percent.

The RBA was expected to ease rates last month but shocked observers when it left the rate unchanged, citing the resilient domestic economy and improved global outlook.

The decision not to move rates suggested the RBA had confidence in the local economy, buoyed by low unemployment and continued demand for labour.

However, the new dynamic the banks have set up by raising rates independently of the RBA mean borrowers could be hit by a rate rise at any time.

"Borrowers should expect frequent small changes in rates, perhaps as often as every month," Mr Smith said.

Source: www.ninemsn.com.au

The Reserve Bank of Australia board has kept interest rates on hold, leaving the official cash rate at 4.25 percent.

The shock move comes as many parts of the economy continue to struggle with the side effects of the mining boom.

Data published yesterday showed retail trade contracted 0.1 percent in December, traditionally the sector’s strongest month.

In anticipation of a rate cut, the Prime Minister and Treasurer earlier urged banks to pass on the cut in full.

But the board’s decision means mortgage holders and borrowers will have to wait another month in hope of further interest rate relief.

The CEO of mortgage comparison company RateCity, Damian Smith, told ninemsn the surprise announcement does not spell impending doom for mortgagees.

"Borrowers shouldn’t be disheartened that the Reserve Bank kept the cash rate at 4.25 percent today because the sluggish home loans market means the ball is in your court," Mr Smith said.

"We’re seeing lenders offering discounts of up to one percent off their standard variable rates for basic home loans and many lenders — including the big four banks — have said they are willing to negotiate to retain their share of the home loan market."

The Australian dollar rose sharply immediately after the news, up more than 0.7 of a US cent.

At 1432 (AEDT), the currency was at 107.79 US cents, compared with 107.06 US cents just before the RBA announced its decision at 1430 (AEST) today.

Source: www.ninemsn.com.au

The Board of the Reserve Bank meets on February 7 next week. In July last year Westpac forecast that the next easing cycle would

total 100bps beginning near year’s end. Subsequently, the Board decided to ease the overnight cash rate by 25bps in both November and December. Based on current information, we continue to expect a further 50bps of easings in this cycle with the next move at the February 7 meeting and another to follow in May.

The case supporting a rate cut next week is strong. Market pricing is certainly arguing for a move: current pricing puts an 85% probability on a 25bp cut.

Clearly, a key factor used by the Board to justify the decision to cut rates in December hinged around Europe and funding conditions.

The RBA Governor on December 6 noted, "Financial markets have experienced considerable turbulence and financing conditions have become much more difficult".

It is reasonable to argue that financial market conditions have improved since the December meeting. In the Board minutes it was noted, "Australian banks had found long–term debt markets dislocated" and "wholesale debt markets appeared to be closed to many financial institutions".

Bill Evans, Chief Economist

Westpac Bank

As we head into 2012 pondering where the housing market is headed – will it be down 10 per cent as some commentators are expecting, or will others be on the money with predictions of 5-7 per cent growth – there is some interesting news emerging about home loans.

Out today are figures showing mortgage holders are increasingly being lured by fixed rates.

Despite predictions about one, two or even three rate cuts coming over the next six months, a growing number of homeowners are locking in their rates now. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows fixed loans grew from 10.6 per cent of new housing loans before the most recent rate cut in November to 11.1 per cent.

And mortgage broker AFG reveals that 19.2 per cent of loans arranged through its business in December were issued at fixed rates, a big jump from 8.2 per cent six months earlier.

An odd move you may think given all the predictions are for official rates to fall further this year. But CommSec economist Savanth Sebastian argues people are simply getting in at what they can afford.

“It’s more about ensuring you can purchase a place within your budget and within your limits," he says. "While the risks are to the downside [for rates to fall], I think the fixed rate market has already priced in a couple more rate cuts,” he says.

In addition “even though the Reserve Bank will cut rates, the banks need to pass it on. So the fixed market is looking very attractive, not only do you need a couple more rate cuts [for variable rates to match fixed] but you need it all to be passed on as well to justify where the fixed market is.”

Many homebuyers may also be wary that should there be a swift change in the economy, rates can easily shoot back up. 

“We saw straight after the GFC how rates rose, it certainly would have caught some home buyers that were on the edge in terms of repayments, so at least this way they can sleep easy,” says Sebastian.

Further news on the home loan front could point to a slightly more positive year for property than last, where we saw prices fall across the board. Australian Bureau of Statistics figures have revealed that the number of new owner-occupier housing loans rose by 1.4 per cent in November while the value of loans rose by 2.2 per cent.

However, home loans aren’t being drawn down – rather potential buyers are simply getting their finance sorted and sitting back and waiting until the right time to buy.

So while for the past eight months there’s been consecutive jumps in the number of home loans being approved, in November the value of loans that had actually been drawn down was two per cent lower than a year ago, and commitments not advanced were almost 11 per cent higher than the previous year.

With all the concern about the state of the US and European economies, it’s little wonder buyers have been taking a cautious approach.

So just what will entice all these cashed-up potential home buyers to jump? Could a February rate cut be enough?

CommSec’s Sebastian thinks so. “Even the thought of rate cuts should prompt activity levels to increase over the next few months,” he says.

Story source: www.domain.com.au

Ongoing discount loans lose momentum

Borrowers’ preference for fixed rate home loans is continuing at an unrelenting pace regardless of recent cash rate cuts, national loan approval data from Mortgage Choice has revealed.

Fixed rate loans accounted for 24% of all new home loan approvals during December 2011, up from 21% in November and well above the 12-month average of 15%. Demand for this loan type has risen for seven consecutive months, increasing 13 percentage points since May 2011.

Company spokesperson Belinda Williamson said, “Consecutive cash rate cuts in November and December 2011 have not swayed Australian borrowers’ desire for fixed rate loans.”

“It is possible borrowers’ need for certainty around their home loan repayments, coupled with the affordability of fixed rate loans are the driving forces behind demand for this loan type.

“During December fixed rates were significantly lower than variable rates, in some cases the difference was one percentage point or more.

“Our loan data shows fixed rates are now more in demand than they have been in over three and a half years at the expense of variable rates, which have lost popularity among new borrowers.

“Customer demand for variable rate loans fell from 79% to 76%, well down on the 12-month average of 85%. The most popular variable rate home loan with new borrowers, ongoing discount rate loans, slipped from 44% to 41%, also well below the 12-month average of 35%.”

Basic variable loan demand rose marginally to 15% of all approvals in December, up from 14% in November while standard variable loan demand fell slightly to 16% from 17%. Interest in line of credit loans dropped to 3% from 4% and the uptake of introductory rate loans was steady at 1%.

For more information visit: www.mortgagechoice.com.au

The Reserve Bank of Australia board has cut the official interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25 per cent, giving mortgage holders and borrowers a pre-Christmas reprieve.

The RBA announced the rate cut at 2.30pm AEDT today following the board’s final meeting for the year.

It’s the second interest rate cut in as many months after the RBA lowered the cash rate on Melbourne Cup day in November.

In a statement issued with the announcement, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said there had been "considerable turbulence" in financial markets and said financing conditions had become more difficult.

"This, together with precautionary behaviour by firms and households, means that the likelihood of a further material slowing in global growth has increased," Mr Stevens said in a statement accompanying the decision on Tuesday.

Economics analyst Ross Greenwood said Europe’s debt crisis would have been a significant factor in the RBA’s decision.

"The Reserve Bank indicated that it is still concerned about the European economic situation and the prospects of a global slowdown hurting Australia and its export markets," Greenwood told ninemsn.

While it’s good news for mortgage holders and borrowers, Greenwood cautioned consumers not to expect the banks to pass on the full interest rate.

Analysts were divided about whether the RBA would cut the rate today, with a survey of 14 economists conducted by AAP revealing seven tipping a cut, and seven predicting rates would stay on hold for another month.

Story source: www.ninemsn.com.au

Economists are divided on whether borrowers will get a second interest rate cut in as many months on Tuesday.

Seven of the 14 economists surveyed by AAP say the RBA will cut the cash rate to 4.25 per cent from 4.5 per cent on December 6.

On Melbourne Cup day, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut the cash rate from 4.75 per cent, saying that recent information suggested inflation had been contained.

With inflation no longer a problem, the bias for the RBA is now firmly leaning towards rate cuts, with 10 of the 14 economists forecasting rate cuts by the middle of 2012.

Citigroup head of economics Paul Brennan is expecting the RBA to cut rates on Tuesday, despite expectations of strong economic growth in the September quarter.

"We see this as a policy of least regret given that the outlook for global growth has continued to weaken in the past month to well below trend," Mr Brennan said.

"We see scope to lower the cash rate to the bottom of the neutral range over the next few months, which would imply a cash rate of four per cent over the next three months."

The biggest risk to economic growth comes from Europe, which may well go into recession, or start another financial crisis, as several members of the euro struggle to meet debt repayments.

There are also local risks to economic growth.

In the past month the RBA, Treasury and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) have cut economic growth forecasts for 2012.

In addition to that, official figures for October showed a 10.7 per cent fall in building approvals and retail spending only rising 0.2 per cent.

On the other hand Australia’s mining boom is still going strong, with the sector making its biggest ever contribution to economic growth.

Nomura Australia chief economist Stephen Roberts said he doesn’t expect the cash rate to move for the foreseeable future unless something bad happens overseas.

"My forecast is that they are going to leave it at 4.5 per cent," he said.

"I’m assuming they will hold it neutral all the way through to the end of 2012 but my proviso is if Europe generally does go to hell in a handbasket, then they can drop interest rates a long way."

NAB senior economist Spiros Papadopoulos said the RBA won’t cut on Tuesday but by early next year the pressure will build for another rate cut.

"Obviously there’s a risk that they might cut interest rates next week, given everything that’s been happening offshore in the last couple of weeks," he said.

"On balance, given the fact that the domestic economy has been holding up okay we don’t think they need to rush in to cutting rates."

Story source: www.ninemsn.com.au

Top tips to saving more this Christmas

As households prepare their budgets for festive season shopping splurges, now is an ideal time to unwrap the financial strategies that help borrowers gain greater control over their home loan situation, according to Australia’s largest independently-owned mortgage broker, Mortgage Choice.

Company spokesperson Kristy Sheppard said, “Ensure Christmas costs don’t hamper your ability to meet home loan and/or other debt commitments, by proactively managing your money. It’s not hard.”

“Staying on top of financial obligations, in conjunction with careful pre and post silly season budgeting and planning, will without a doubt put you in a better position to achieve your property goals sooner. It should also give you more confidence to properly enjoy the festive season.”

Here are five tips to help improve your mortgage management in the countdown to Christmas:

‘Tis the season to bring budgeting back on track. Get your Christmas and new year budget underway if you haven’t already. Be sure to include seasonal spending estimates for gifts, treats, catch ups, celebrations and other holiday outings.

‘Tis the season for a home loan health check. Are you making the most of your loan? There may be features attached to it you are not utilising or are paying a premium for. A regular home loan health check is a great way to see if you are making the most of your existing loan or if you are better suited to a different lender and/or product. Before switching, carefully weigh up the pros and cons by comparing loan features, rate, repayment type and frequency, accessibility, fees and more.

‘Tis the season to keep repayments steady, despite recent rate cuts. If your loan’s interest rate has recently dropped, get ahead by continuing to repay at the original, higher rate. For example, take a loan of $300,000 at 7% over 30 years. If your rate reduces by 0.25% to 6.75% and you keep repaying your loan as if the interest rate was still 7%, you could shave over two and a half years off your loan term and save more than $54,000 in interest owed.

‘Tis the season to go one step further and round up repayments. If the monthly repayments on the above mentioned loan maintained at the higher rate are rounded up from $1,996 to $2,100 from day one, it is possible to cut a further three years and seven months off the loan term and save an additional $55,000 in interest owed (if all loan aspects remained the same). The total savings would equal $109,000 in interest and a reduction in the loan term to 24 years and 8 months.

‘Tis the season to turn up the frequency of repayments. Depending on your loan and lender, dividing your monthly minimum repayment in two and making fortnightly repayments instead may also save you interest owed and reduce the loan term. There are 12 months and 26 fortnights in one calendar year; by paying fortnightly, you make the equivalent of 13 monthly repayments. The savings on the above mentioned loan equal almost $100,000 in interest and almost six years off the loan term.

For home loan tips, trends, facts, data and other information, visit MortgageChoice.com.au,

With the Reserve Bank serving up a rate cut, it’s a smart move to keep your repayments at the same level. Many lenders don’t automatically reduce your repayments when rates fall.

That doesn’t mean, of course, that you’re not getting a cut in interest rates – just that your weekly or fortnightly (or monthly, but don’t pay monthly, it will cost you more in the long run, as explained below) repayments stay the same.

That’s smart because automatically you’re paying an extra $45-$60 (or whatever it equates to on your mortgage) a month, which will see you get out of the debt-jail sooner.

And with house prices stagnant or falling, the one smart way to make money out of your property is pay it off more quickly and reduce the overall cost of acquiring it.

It has, of course, always been the best way to do things. Ask any pre-baby boomer and they will tell you that.

But in the heady debt-fuelled days of recent past it seemed too easy that you could buy a place, sit it out, burn up the redraw facility on the loan on cars, clothes and overseas holidays, and still double your money in a decade. However, after such big run-ups in house prices, everything has softened and we’re not likely to see similar increases in home prices anytime soon.

Not that a slowing housing market is necessarily bad – despite the general pall it throws over things. Investors may want those days to return but most people can see that steady prices are a lot healthier.

Houses, after all, are primarily for living in. There are other money-making vehicles out there that don’t put the cost of basic shelter out of the average person’s reach.

And the slowing housing market also – in part – took the pressure off the Reserve Bank to keep hiking rates after last year’s Melbourne Cup.

When it comes to the cost of acquiring a home, you can do it the expensive way – borrowing the money (as most of us have to do), or the really, really expensive way (borrowing money and taking forever to pay it off).

The Figures

Let’s assume you’re paying 7 per cent on your mortgage now and you’ve borrowed $500,000 to buy your place. Pay it off monthly over 25 years and you’ll fork out a total of about $1,060,147.

Add another $60 a month to your repayments and you’ll be up for a total over the life of the loan of $1,031,230, saving $28,918.

Pay down an extra $200 a month, or about $50 a week, and suddenly you’re up for a six-figure total instead of a seven, of about $975,321. You’ll also save an impressive $84,842. And you’ll walk away from the shackles of that mortgage more than three years earlier.

Of course your mortgage might not be $500,000, so to find out how it works in your situation check out some of the online calculators such as this. It’s worth bookmarking the site and going back to it every time you need a bit of motivation to pay down the mortgage faster.

And another trick – now well known by many – is to pay fortnightly and not monthly. You’ll end up thousands of dollars ahead by taking advantage of the fact there’s 12 months in the year, but 26 fortnights, meaning you make one fortnight’s repayment more per year than you would if you were paying monthly.

Story by Carolyn Boyd www.domain.com.au

Fixed term mortgages hit 3.5 year high in October

Basic variable rates were the most popular with new home loan borrowers only 11 months ago, but today they have been far surpassed by ongoing discount rates and fixed rates, according to loan approval data from Mortgage Choice, Australia’s largest independently-owned mortgage broker.

At that time, the no-frills product type accounted for 34% of the broker’s new approvals. Today, this sits at less than 16%, the second lowest point since Mortgage Choice began recording such data in January 2003.

Fixed rates are now more in demand than they have been in well over three years, and although the popularity of ongoing discount rates dropped for the first time in October they remain by far the most popular home loan with new borrowers, accounting for more than 43% of approvals.

Company spokesperson Kristy Sheppard said, “When comparing our October loan approval data to that extracted one year ago, it’s remarkably obvious how much the industry has changed in reacting to subdued housing finance demand and a relatively positive interest rate outlook.”

“Then, basic variable rate was the loan of choice at just over 34% of approvals. Standard variable rate followed with just under 34%, then ongoing discount rate at 17% and fixed rate at 11%.

“That situation has now flipped. New borrowers’ appetite for fixed rate loans is at a three and a half year high of 20% of approvals and ongoing discount rate loans account for 43% of approvals.

“In an environment of rising living costs and economic uncertainty it is unsurprising borrowers are taking advantage of the relatively low fixed rates and attractive variable rate discounts offered by lenders hungry for business.”

The popularity of standard variable, line of credit and introductory rate home loans all fell in October, to 15%, 4% and 1% of approvals respectively. Basic variable demand rose slightly to 16%.

Note: Mortgage Choice currently writes one in 25 new home loans in Australia, equating to approx. $10 billion in approvals per year, hence it provides a clear insight into borrower preferences. The 19 year old mortgage broker has a loan book of over $42 billion.

The housing sector is stabilising as talk of an interest rate rise wanes and Australians are encouraged to borrow more, economists say.

The number of home loans approved in August rose 1.2 per cent to 50,965, official figures show. Economists’ forecasts had centred on a 1 per cent rise in housing finance commitments for the month.

August was the fifth straight month that housing finance commitments had risen.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics said total housing finance by value rose 1.0 per cent in August, seasonally adjusted, to $20.848 billion.

JPMorgan economist Ben Jarman said the figures showed the housing sector was stabilising rather than rebounding.

‘‘It certainly means it’s not falling into a hole,’’ Mr Jarman said. ‘‘In the last few months worth of data, the housing finance figures have benefited from the perception that the RBA won’t be doing much in the near term.

‘‘So, if you went back to the start of this year, the RBA didn’t hike rates but there was all the forecast and all the language were making noises that you would get a couple of hikes this year.

‘‘Those aren’t being delivered and things offshore have turned a little bit sour.

‘‘What you’ve seen in the last few months in the home loans data is these fading expectations are helping out and people are coming back and they are happy to take on new debt.

‘‘We’re kind of calling this a mini-rally, but don’t think that this is the start of a tear away in the housing market.

‘‘There’s still a lot of uncertainty globally and that’s what’s keeping the RBA on the sidelines.’’

Mr Jarman said JPMorgan still expected the RBA not to change the cash rate from its current 4.75 per cent until at least the middle of 2012.

‘‘You’ve got a lot uncertainty offshore counterbalancing the domestic inflationary situation here and we see the RBA not doing very much for a while.’’

ICAP senior economist Adam Carr said August’s housing finance figure was a good result and continued a 13 per cent increase in lending since April.

‘‘The pattern we’ve witnessed over the last year is that home lending is posting a dramatic improvement after a GFC induced slump, interrupted only by the floods and the disasters,’’ Mr Carr said. ‘‘Now we’re back on track.’’He expected housing finance data to continue to be strong in the coming months.

‘‘Financial conditions are not too tight, we’ve had an easing in financial conditions (and) lending rates are going sharply lower.

‘‘Don’t forget the unemployment rate is low and income growth is strong, so the prospects are really good.’’

The data also highlighted why a cut in the cash rate was not needed, he said.

‘‘The reason I say that is because the economy is healthy – we don’t need one or two rate cuts.

‘‘We’re either going to get 100 basis points worth of cuts or more because Europe collapses and we have another GFC or, I would imagine, we get none.

‘‘That’s because retailing is accelerating, home lending is accelerating, approvals are accelerating and the unemployment rate is low.

‘‘To argue that we need one or two rate cuts is just absurd.’’

AAP

Source: www.domain.com.au

The central bank has decided to keep the cash rate unchanged this month and has opened the door for possible future cuts.

The decision was expected, with all 15 economists surveyed last week by AAP predicting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would keep rates on hold at 4.75 per cent on Tuesday.

The central bank’s board last raised the rate from 4.5 per cent in November 2010.

But the focus was on the statement accompanying the decision, in which RBA Governor Glenn Stevens indicated he was less concerned that inflation would accelerate.

"The path for inflation may now be more consistent with the two to three per cent target in 2012 and 2013," he said.

That meant rate cuts were now on the table.

"An improved inflation outlook would increase the scope for monetary policy to provide some support to demand, should that prove necessary," Mr Stevens said.

UBS interest rate strategist Matthew Johnson said the RBA appeared to have downgraded its growth and inflation forecasts.

"I think that the bank has gone from thinking that things were too strong a couple of months ago, to being around trend now," Mr Johnson said.

"If there’s a further deteriorating, they’ll ease policy."

He said the statement prompted investors to buy bonds, on expectations that the central bank may soon cut the cash rate.

The December 10-year bond futures contract rose to 95.985 (implying a yield of 4.015 per cent) from 95.96 (4.04 per cent) just before the RBA released its statement at 1430 AEDT.

The Australian dollar dropped to a one-year low 94.65 cents after the statement.

Mr Johnson said Mr Stevens’ statement suggested the bank would be watching unemployment figures very closely, as a gauge of inflationary pressure on the economy.

"But we’re a few months away from having to make that decision."

Mr Stevens said conditions in global financial markets continued to be "very unsettled, with uncertainty increasing about both the prospects for resolution of the sovereign debt and banking problems in Europe, and the outlook for global economic growth."

However, economic activity in China and Asia was continuing to expand, he said.

CommSec chief economist Craig James said Mr Stevens’ statement showed the RBA had become more open to the possibility of lower rates.

"For the first time since the global financial crisis, the Reserve Bank has opened the possibility of rates being trimmed to support the economy," Mr James said.

He said the focus now shifts to October 26, when the Australian Bureau of Statistics releases consumer price index (CPI) data for the September quarter.

The CPI is a key measure of inflation and is used by the central bank in setting its monetary policy.

HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham said the RBA’s statement was more dovish than recent ones.

"The RBA is keeping a steady hand on the wheel and is more concerned with the inflation outlook," he said.

Mr Bloxham noted that while the European and US economies were slowing, Asia, and particularly China, were going strong or, at least, easing at a steady rate.

Story source: www.ninemsn.com.au