The Reserve Bank’s decision this week to reduce official interest rates by 50 basis points is good news.

Falling rates and solid signs of an improving local economy provide the Sydney housing market with the prospect for increased buyer activity and further increases in median house prices this year.

Australian Property Monitors has recently reported that the Sydney median house price rose strongly by 1.4 per cent in the March quarter.

The city’s suburban regions also recorded encouraging increases in median house prices during the quarter.

The only exception was the northern beaches, where prices were down marginally, by 0.5 per cent.

The top performer was the central coast, where median house prices rose by 5.7 per cent. The next best were Sydney’s south, up 5 per cent, Canterbury-Bankstown, up 4.8 per cent, and the western suburbs, where median house prices increased by 4.3 per cent.

Despite the increases, price levels in some areas are still below those recorded a year ago.

The worst performer over the past year was the lower north shore, where median house prices were down by 6.6 per cent.

The city and east region fell by 5.3 per cent and the northern beaches was down 4.9 per cent compared with March 2011.

Several regions, however, have recorded increases in the median house price in the past year. The best was the upper north shore, which was up 1.9 per cent.

Sydney’s west was up 1.8 per cent, while house prices in the south-west rose by 1.5 per cent over the year to March.

Dr Andrew Wilson is the senior economist for Fairfax-owned Australian Property Monitors.

Story source: www.domain.com.au

The Reserve Bank of Australia has cut interest rates by 50 basis points in an unexpected move that should provide welcome relief to many homeowners.

The reduction takes the official cash rate to 3.75 percent.

Damian Smith CEO of financial comparison site RateCity called the RBA’s decision "a very big move".

"They haven’t moved rates this far since the depths of the Global Financial Crisis," Mr Smith told ninemsn.

"This cut will help thousands of households, with people on a $300,000 mortgage potentially saving around $1000 per year."

But he warns that some banks may be unwilling to pass on the rate cut in full.

"It’s unlikely that all lenders will pass on the full rate cut," Mr Smith said.

"The signals from the big four banks suggest that they will try to hold on to part of this rate cut."

Mr Smith points out that while the central bank has lowered the cash rate by 50 basis points since November, "the big four banks have only passed on around 40 basis points to variable rate home loan customers".

It is the largest cut to the cash rate since a 100 basis point reduction in February 2009, and the first time the RBA has lowered the cash rate since it cut it by 25 basis points at its December board meeting.

Business lobby groups, trade unionists and some economists had called for the board of the RBA to cut rates by 50 basis points to help ailing retailers, manufacturers and the stubborn housing market.

Story source: www.ninemsn.com.au

Australia’s housing sector has called on the reserve bank to deliver a 50 basis point interest rate cut after a survey showed new home sales have fallen to their lowest level in more than a decade.

The Housing Industry Association (HIA), which represents the residential building industry, says new home sales dropped 9.4 per cent, seasonally adjusted, in March 2012, their lowest level in more than 10 years.

Multi-unit sales slumped 6.4 per cent over the same period.

HIA chief economist Harley Dale called on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to deliver a 50 basis point interest rate cut at its board meeting on Tuesday.

An AAP survey of 16 economists on Friday showed all expected the RBA to cut the cash rate 25 basis points, to 4.00 per cent, this week.

However, Mr Dale said a larger cut was needed to revive the housing sector.

"The bank needs to send a clear signal that it is back on the case of assisting an economy that is clearly weaker than it anticipated in 2012," said Harley Dale.

"It is not too late to turn the situation around and prevent new housing from revisiting a GFC (global financial crisis) low.

"Interest rate cuts, while no panacea, can provide substantial assistance in restoring confidence and activity."

The survey of Australia’s 100 largest builders found Queensland suffered the biggest decline with new home sales down 15.3 per cent, followed by Western Australia, down 12 per cent, and New South Wales, down 9.7 per cent.

Story source: http://finance.ninemsn.com.au

Foreign investors have “very odd” views about Australian property and fret that housing prices may yet collapse, according to a senior Australian banking executive.

“Overseas investors have a very odd set of views about Australian property prices,” Phil Chronican, ANZ’s chief executive of its Australian operations, said today.

“They on one hand look at the stability and take a lot of comfort from it. The other is they cannot believe Australia was able to not have a property price collapse.”
Questions about the health of Australia’s property market continue to surface in talks ANZ has with investors overseas more than four years after the financial crisis battered real estate markets in the US and UK, Mr Chronican told the American Chamber of Commerce in Melbourne.
Australia’s capital city home prices have lost 4.4 per cent in the year to March, and the outlook remains subdued.

While home prices have turned positive in the past two months, building approvals and dwelling starts have plunged and a shortage of affordable homes remains.
In the wide-ranging speech, the executive in charge of ANZ’s domestic market said the mining boom was passing many Australians by, contributing to a drop off in consumer activity in recent years.
“Despite our strong economy, many Australians feel worried about our prospects in the face of uncertainty in Europe and many, particularly outside the fast lane of the mining and resource sector, feel they’re not seeing the benefits,” Mr Chronican said.

Story by Chris Zappone, www.domain.com.au

The board of the Reserve Bank of Australia has left the official cash rate at 4.25 percent for the second month in a row.

The move was widely expected with inflation at the bottom of the RBA’s target band of 2-3 percent and global economic conditions improving.

However, the news may not be met with the rapturous receptions of the past with many lenders now lifting their rates independently of the RBA.

"The rates that borrowers pay have been creeping away from the Reserve Bank’s cash rate movements since the global financial crisis," RateCity CEO Damian Smith said.

"Last month proves that all variable rate mortgage holders are vulnerable to rate hikes, regardless of what the RBA does."

The central bank left rates on hold last month but that didn’t stop the big four, ANZ, Commonwealth Bank, NAB and Westpac from lifting their standard variable mortgage rates between 0.06 and 0.10 percent.

Westpac-owned St George went even further by hiking their rates by 0.12 percent.

The RBA was expected to ease rates last month but shocked observers when it left the rate unchanged, citing the resilient domestic economy and improved global outlook.

The decision not to move rates suggested the RBA had confidence in the local economy, buoyed by low unemployment and continued demand for labour.

However, the new dynamic the banks have set up by raising rates independently of the RBA mean borrowers could be hit by a rate rise at any time.

"Borrowers should expect frequent small changes in rates, perhaps as often as every month," Mr Smith said.

Source: www.ninemsn.com.au

When it comes to planning for retirement, paying off a mortgage should be the cornerstone of security.

Question

I am a 49-year-old single female earning $61,317 a year. I pay a compulsory members contribution of 2 per cent to the Public Servants Superannuation Fund.

I have $96,000 in super and another $11,000 in a rollover fund. I have a $232,000 mortgage on a house in the outer suburbs of Melbourne with repayments of $910 a fortnight.

My preservation age is 58 and my Centrelink age pension age is 67. I was hoping to retire well before 67 as I am barely capable of working full time now.

I realise my super balance is inadequate to enable early retirement. In one year I will attain 10 years service and my employer will match my personal super contributions up to 10 per cent.

I receive $911 a fortnight net wages after mortgage, tax and super deductions, so I struggle financially.

If I increase my super contributions it will create even more hardship.

Should I increase my mortgage repayments instead of increasing the super, or a combination of both?

Should I get income-protection insurance and trauma insurance (reducing my net income further), to avoid calamity if I were to get sick? S.M.

Answer

Yes, you can’t go past the offer to match contributions up to 10 per cent and you need to take this up to the full.

However, you also have to put priority on being able to retire in a mortgage-free home and thus avoid a drain on your retirement income. At least you can then rely on the full-age pension to meet your daily needs.

At your current rate of repayment, it will take you some 17 years to pay off your mortgage, assuming an interest rate of 7.3 per cent. Alternatively, you could pay off a loan of about $155,000 over nine years or $130,000 over seven years.

You need to decide whether you can afford this property or whether you are better off relocating to a smaller unit. Or wait until retirement to sell and then buy what you can then afford without a mortgage, but you’ll pay bigger repayments into a bigger mortgage until then.

For now, open a mortgage offset and use it as your main deposit account so that, by using a 55-day credit card, you can keep as much money in there for as long as possible. It’s the most tax-efficient way to handle your money.

Some people suggest salary sacrificing to the maximum and thus getting a tax deduction, then withdrawing a lump sum at retirement and paying off the mortgage.

This may suit those in high tax brackets, depending on whether their super investments make or lose money, but you are already struggling and will be struggling more.

Rollover the benefit from your rollover fund into, say, the AGEST super fund and buy salary continuance insurance through super so as not to reduce the amount you can put into your mortgage offset account.

That, plus your sick pay entitlements will, hopefully, insure against any trauma.

If you have a question for George Cochrane, send it to
Personal Investment
PO Box 3001
Tamarama, NSW, 2026

Helplines

Banking Ombudsman, 1300 780 808
pensions, 13 23 00

Story source: www.domain.com.au, story by George Cochrane

The Board of the Reserve Bank meets on February 7 next week. In July last year Westpac forecast that the next easing cycle would

total 100bps beginning near year’s end. Subsequently, the Board decided to ease the overnight cash rate by 25bps in both November and December. Based on current information, we continue to expect a further 50bps of easings in this cycle with the next move at the February 7 meeting and another to follow in May.

The case supporting a rate cut next week is strong. Market pricing is certainly arguing for a move: current pricing puts an 85% probability on a 25bp cut.

Clearly, a key factor used by the Board to justify the decision to cut rates in December hinged around Europe and funding conditions.

The RBA Governor on December 6 noted, "Financial markets have experienced considerable turbulence and financing conditions have become much more difficult".

It is reasonable to argue that financial market conditions have improved since the December meeting. In the Board minutes it was noted, "Australian banks had found long–term debt markets dislocated" and "wholesale debt markets appeared to be closed to many financial institutions".

Bill Evans, Chief Economist

Westpac Bank

AUSTRALIAN housing markets displayed a generally resilient performance in 2011, reflecting the inherent security of residential real estate in this country, particularly when compared with housing markets in similar open-market economies.

The year was always set to be a period of correction for Australia’s housing markets following the unsustainable growth in house prices recorded through 2009 and 2010.

Between January 2009 and June 2010, Melbourne’s quarterly median house price rose by nearly 30 per cent, with Sydney’s up by almost 20 per cent over the same period. All other capitals also recorded big rises in house prices over those 18 months.

Housing affordability crashed by the end of 2010, with surging house prices and rising interest rates combining to send buyers into hibernation.

Australian Property Monitors data has revealed that capital city housing markets have generally performed encouragingly in 2011 despite the pressure on housing affordability generated in 2010 and a mixed economic performance in 2011.

The national median price for houses over the year to October 2011 fell by just 1 per cent compared with the previous year, with median unit prices rising by 1.2 per cent over the year. The 2011 result follows a 17 per cent rise in the national median house price over the year to October 2010 and a 12.2 per cent rise in the median unit price over the same period.

The best capital city performers were Melbourne and Sydney, where annual median house prices rose by 1 per cent. Darwin and Adelaide house prices were flat and Hobart down 1.5 per cent.

The worst performers over the year were Brisbane and Perth, where annual median house prices fell by 3.5 and 4.75 per cent respectively.

The unit market clearly outperformed the housing market over the year to October 2011, with Sydney recording median unit price growth of 2 per cent followed by Melbourne and Darwin up by 1 per cent. Brisbane and Perth were again the underperformers, with annual unit prices falling by 1.3 per cent and 3.5 per cent respectively.

Bureau of Statistics data confirms the solid performance by Australian housing markets in 2011, with the number of owner-occupier housing loans rising by 2.4 per cent over the 10 months ending October compared with the same period in 2010.

New South Wales was the best performer with an increase of 8 per cent, with Western Australia surprisingly in second place with growth in home loans of 7 per cent over the year, courtesy of a surge in the past three months – indicating perhaps growing late-year momentum in that market.

By contrast, the number of home loans approved in Queensland in the year to October fell by 8.4 per cent compared with the same period in 2010.

The nature and strength of Australian housing markets in 2011 was always to be determined by the underlying supply and demand characteristics of individual markets and the strength of national and local economies.

In addition to the affordability barriers created by the prices surge and interest rate rises of 2009 and 2010, housing markets have had to encounter unexpected headwinds in 2011. The impact of the central Queensland and Brisbane floods was not restricted to the local housing markets. National economic output was affected through reduced coal exports and the cost of the reconstruction levy. Higher prices for fruit and vegetables also affected household budgets nationally.

The impact of catastrophic natural disasters on the national psyche and confidence cannot be underestimated, particularly given Australia’s recent propensity for financial conservatism, especially when it comes to buying or borrowing.

The Japanese earthquake and associated tsunami in March also contributed to lower economic growth and reduced consumer confidence.

Stalling economic growth in 2011 was also a product of continued mixed performances by various industry sectors, particularly retail, manufacturing, tourism and construction. As a consequence, all capitals recorded rises in unemployment through mid-year. All these factors combined to subdue consumer capacity and confidence and consequently dampen home buying activity through 2011.

Most Australian capital city housing markets are, however, set to record growth in median prices over 2012 as the national economy gathers strength. The Australian economy is primed to expand strongly on the back of a significant resources boom with the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development predicting gross domestic product will increase by 4 per cent over the year.

Melbourne, Adelaide and Hobart will be the underperformers in 2012, with median house price growth of between zero and 5 per cent.

Melbourne’s balanced housing supply and demand mix offers buyers a wide choice and it remains the most tenant-friendly capital city rental market. Affordability barriers, however, remain for home buyers.

With the Victorian economy showing signs of running out of puff, particularly as the recent construction boom abates, the housing market is set to drift sideways though 2012. The possibility remains of some growth in median house prices by the end of 2012 as the impact of a strong national economy filters through.

Dr Andrew Wilson is senior economist for Australian Property Monitors.

Source: BusinessDay

www.news.domain.com.au

The Reserve Bank has decided to keep interest rates on hold, despite fears of the Australian economy struggling outside the mining sector.

With instability in the European markets and concerns over a double-dip recession in the US, the RBA decided to keep official interest rates at 4.75 percent.

RateCity CEO Damian Smith said the decision to keep rates on hold is good news for homeowners and prospective buyers.

"With the number of property sales and mortgages plummeting this year, keeping the cash rate unchanged should give some confidence to both groups," Mr Smith said.

"It’s important that current borrowers use any rate pause wisely – paying down debt by increasing your monthly repayments is a tried and tested formula.

"For those about to enter the property market, having the highest possible deposit saved will help you reduce the impact of any future rate rises."

The Reserve Bank last raised rates by 25 basis points in November 2010.

Source: www.ninemsn.com.au

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has spared borrowers an interest rate rise, leaving the cash rate at 4.75 percent in a widely expected move.

The Reserve Bank last increased the overnight cash rate in November 2010 to 4.75 percent from 4.5 percent and most economists still expect a rate rise this year.

“We expect that the Reserve Bank’s decision to leave the official cash rate unchanged at 4.75% today will fuel a new trend emerging where we’re starting to see Australians saving less and borrowing more money for home loans," RateCity chief executive Damian Smith said.

Prior to the announcement the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry warned that an official interest rate rise today would "punch a hole" in business and consumer confidence. The chamber’s latest expectations survey, released on Monday, again highlighted the pressures businesses are facing, it said.

"We are particularly concerned about a pre-emptive rate increase, or an early increase," the chamber’s director of economics and industry policy Greg Evans told reporters in Canberra.

"That that could be very damaging and punch a hole in both business and consumer confidence."

The Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly increased its benchmark interest rate on concern stronger growth will cause inflation to accelerate, driving the nation’s currency toward parity with the U.S. dollar.

Governor Glenn Stevens raised the overnight cash rate target a quarter point to 4.75 percent in Sydney, saying the economy has “relatively modest amounts of spare capacity” and citing risk of “inflation rising again over the medium term.” It was the RBA’s first move in six months.

The move signals Stevens wants to avoid a repeat of 2007, when he held off raising rates for months as slowing inflation masked a build up in price pressures. Growth in Australia, which skirted a recession during the crisis, may strengthen as energy companies such as BG Group Plc add construction jobs.

“They’re trying to nip inflation in the bud,” Matthew Circosta, an economist at Moody’s Analytics in Sydney, said on Bloomberg Television. “Back in 2007 they were behind the curve” in raising rates and “I don’t think they want to make the same mistake this time around.”

The Australian dollar climbed to 99.71 U.S. cents as of 3:31 p.m. in Sydney from 98.82 cents before the announcement. The S&P/ASX 200 Index of stocks was little changed at 4,702.70.

Economists’ Forecasts

The decision, predicted by seven of 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, was the second straight in which Stevens defied the majority of economists’ forecasts.

Stevens’s move comes a day before the U.S. Federal Reserve meets to consider pumping additional stimulus into the world’s largest economy. The divergence in monetary policies has stoked the Australian dollar, which has gained about 11 percent this year against the U.S. currency.

Australia’s jobless rate, at 5.1 percent in September, is about half the level of unemployment in the U.S. and euro zone. The International Monetary Fund predicts Australia’s growth will advance to 3.5 percent next year from 3 percent this year as resources investment intensifies.

“While the labor market is not as tight as in 2007 and 2008, some further strengthening would appear to be in prospect, judging by the trends in job vacancies,” the central bank said in today’s statement. “After the significant decline last year, growth in wages has picked up somewhat, as had been expected. Some further increase is likely over the coming year.”

End of ‘Moderation’

A “moderation” of inflation for the past two years “is probably now close to ending,” the RBA said.

Two days ago, BG Group said it will begin building a $15 billion liquefied natural gas venture in Queensland state, generating 5,000 construction jobs. Investment there and in Western Australia, including Chevron Corp.’s A$43 billion ($42.5 billion) Gorgon liquefied natural gas project, is growing because of stronger Chinese demand for raw materials.

“The bank still sees Australian interest rates as likely to continue to rise as the mining boom progresses,” said Ivan Colhoun, head of Australian economics at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. “This likely reflects the need to move nominal rates higher to match any rise in inflation and, at some stage, to also raise real interest rates too.”

Today’s increase was announced half an hour before the running of the Melbourne Cup, dubbed “the race that stops the nation,” and means the central bank has moved borrowing costs in the past five meetings on the day of Australia’s richest horse race.

Banks’ Response

Borrowing costs at ANZ, Commonwealth Bank of Australia and Westpac Banking Corp. are under review, according to spokesmen at the lenders. National Australia Bank Ltd. spokesman George Wright said no decision has been made “at this stage.”

Treasurer Wayne Swan has urged banks not to boost borrowing costs by more than any central bank increases. Australia lawmakers are sensitive about the RBA’s rate increases as more than two-thirds of the population own homes, compared with less than 50 percent in some European nations.

Australia’s central bank signaled after its Oct. 5 meeting that the decision to leave borrowing costs unchanged was “finely balanced” with the case for an increase, as a rising currency helped ease inflation concerns. Most economists had forecast a quarter percentage-point increase at that meeting.

Job Market

While the government’s consumer price index rose 0.7 percent from the second quarter, less than the 0.8 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey, that may be shrouding intensifying price pressures. An Oct. 7 report showed the biggest back-to-back monthly job increases since 1988.

The central bank’s measures of core inflation showed annual price increases also slowed last quarter. The bank aims to keep inflation in a range of 2 percent to 3 percent on average.

Stevens had paused after boosting borrowing costs in six quarter-point steps from October 2009 to May this year, the most aggressive round of rate increases among Group of 20 members.

Companies such as BHP Billiton Ltd., Rio Tinto Group and BG, the U.K.’s third-largest oil and gas producer, have helped spur a hiring surge as they increase shipments of iron ore, coal and energy to China.

The growth in mining investment was a reason IMF staff last week said Australia is starting to exhibit “early signs” of inflation pressures.

“With inflation projected to remain close to the top of the 2-3 percent target band, the RBA needs to guard against inflation expectations becoming anchored at too high a level,” the IMF staff said in an Oct. 29 report.

Among 33 members of the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Australia last year was the only advanced economy to avoid two consecutive quarters of contraction — a standard definition of a recession — along with developing economies Slovakia and Poland.

To contact the reporter for this story: Michael Heath in Sydney at mheath1@bloomberg.net;

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Chris Anstey in Tokyo at canstey@bloomberg.net

CUP Day punters could have an extra reason to cheer today, with the odds strongly in favour of the Reserve Bank keeping interest rates on hold for a sixth consecutive month.

But any sigh of relief from borrowers could be short-lived, with some pundits predicting that the RBA will still send rates north by Christmas. And analysts are divided over whether Australia’s big banks will be forced to raise rates independently if the RBA chooses to keep its powder dry today.

Nomura’s Victor German said it was clear banks wanted to raise rates, but, from a political point of view, it would now be "very difficult".

He named Commonwealth as the bank most likely to go it alone, but said the chance of an independent rise was "diminishing" with the new Senate inquiry into banking competition.

Southern Cross Equities analyst TS Lim agreed that political pressure made it tougher for banks to raise rates but said increasing funding pressures meant banks were likely to act anyway.

"Once CBA does it the rest will follow," he said.

Futures market betting on the likelihood of an official rise has plummeted in the past week after benign inflation data dampened expectations that the RBA would lift the cash rate to 4.75 per cent.

Market odds last night reflected just 26 per cent chance of a rate hike today, despite new data revealing an uptick in price pressure in October.

Commonwealth Bank chief economist Michael Blythe said a rates pause today would be "probably only a temporary reprieve".

He said economic data in the next month – including critical growth, job and capital spending indicators – could convince the RBA to hike in December.

The TD Securities-Melbourne Institute monthly inflation gauge showed that on an underlying or "trimmed mean" basis – a measure used by the RBA – inflation rose by 0.2 per cent after flat results in August and September.

On a yearly basis, inflation grew at 3.1 per cent – outside the RBA’s target range of 2 to 3 per cent.

Pushing the gauge higher were price rises for car fuel, fruit and vegetables, and insurance services.

Story by Rachel Hewitt – with Peter Taylor www.heraldsun.com.au

IT is only a matter of time before interest rates rise again, with board minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) revealing that it "could not wait indefinitely" due to rising inflationary pressures.

Minutes from the latest RBA monetary policy board meeting, taken on October 5 and released on Tuesday, say that while the overall global outlook was broadly unchanged since the RBA board’s previous meeting, interest rates would need to rise "at some point".

A gradual tightening in resource utilisation meant that inflationary pressures would strengthen, the minutes say.

The minutes reveal that the decision to keep the cash rate on hold at 4.5 per cent, taken at the October 5 meeting, was finely balanced.

"While the board recognised that it could not wait indefinitely to see whether risks materialised, members judged that they had the flexibility to do so on this occasion," the minutes said.

Based on the medium-term inflation outlook, a case could be made to increase the cash rate at the October meeting as developments had been broadly consistent with central forecasts, the minutes said.

But members decided to leave the cash rate unchanged after accepting that the economy was expected to continue growing at trend in the near term, credit growth had softened and the rise in the exchange rate would effectively be "tightening financial conditions at the margin".

Board members also said it was "still possible" that downside risks to global growth could materialise.

"Members felt these arguments were finely balanced," the minutes said.

Overall, they concluded that it would be "appropriate to hold the cash rate steady for the time being," until evaluating further information at the next meeting, on Melbourne Cup Day, November 2.

The board noted that, despite the release of unemployment figures showing a 5.1 per cent unemployment rate in August, there had been a relatively limited amount of economic data released over the past month.

After rising to around record high levels in the June quarter, Australia’s terms of trade were estimated to have increased further in the September quarter but were then expected to decline gradually.

The minutes also noted that a slowdown in the pace of household borrowing had been accompanied by a cooling in the established housing market, and that the borrowing slowdown was a "welcome development".

There had been little new information on price and wage inflation, with consumer price index figures due out later in the month.

Good rainfall had led to conditions in the farm sector improving significantly.

In Europe, Ireland had been a focus of concern in financial markets and members noted that periods of "acute stress" in Europe were "likely to recur".

Meanwhile, business investment was expected to strengthen over the next few years and offset a scaling back in public investment.

Prospects for growth in Asia remained "solid" despite slowing from earlier in the year as the prices of many of Australia’s export commodities remained at high levels, board members said.

"Domestically, members noted that the economy appeared to be evolving broadly in line with the bank’s expectations," the minutes said.

The outlook remained for public spending to slow but for private demand to pick up, particularly in business spending.

Story by Kim Christian www.thesatellite.com.au

The auction market is still performing strongly but vendors of higher-end properties are opting for private sales instead of risking their home at auction, experts warn.

Real Estate Institute of Australia president David Airey warns that although the Melbourne market recorded a 68% clearance rate, the top-end is still struggling with discounts a common occurrence.

"The average price was only about $800,000. People at the top end have decided the best way for them to sell is through private sales, rather than risking through auctions. That’s the same across Australia, where the lower end is moving, but the higher end is more average."

Airey points to the sheer number of pass-ins occurring in Melbourne. The REIV figures suggest 325 properties were passed in, and Airey says more of these would have been likely in the top-end areas.

Christopher also believes the market in the top-end properties is moving slowly.

"It’s a very difficult market to read. I’d say the top end is quite patch. You could get some very good sales, but there are still records of properties that aren’t performing particularly well at all. It’s definitely a patchy market."

However, other markets have remained strong, these experts say. Melbourne managed record a 68% clearance rate out of 1,031 auctions, according to the REIV, with chief executive Enzo Raimondo pointing out that rate hasn’t changed during the past eight weeks.

"In light of the very high number of auctions this weekend the clearance rate of 68 that was achieved is a very healthy result and demonstrates that underlying demand is good," he said.

Some analysts predicted prices might drop due to the sheer number of listings. Auctions have backed up over the past few weeks due to the AFL Grand Final and the subsequent replay, while the upcoming Cup Weekend has brought forward some sales.

"Including this weekend’s activity, the REIV has seen average weekly auction listings increase by around 30% compared to winter; interestingly, the clearance rate for spring has not changed substantially, with around 68% of homes selling during the first eight weeks of spring."

Airey agrees, saying the result was "a particularly solid one".

But the rest of the country hasn’t performed so well. Christopher says Sydney’s result in the mid-50s reveals neither buyers nor vendors have negotiating control.

"That result represents a market equilibrium, where neither buyers nor sellers have control. However, that result does indicate that there could still be price rises occurring there."

"Outside Sydney and Melbourne, and putting Canberra aside, it’s a pretty weak market out there. I would argue prices are falling in southeast Queensland, and Adelaide is looking very slow as well."

Christopher also points out activity in the Northern Territory, which he says is becoming scarily bubble-like. "Darwin is a market that is looking very scary at the moment and very bubbly. When it turns, it’s going to be a steep ride down."

According to Australian Property Monitors, Sydney recorded a 56% clearance rate out of 501 auctions. Total sales came to $149 million.

Adelaide recorded a 63% clearance rate out of the 48 auctions on the market, with total sales coming to $9.9 million, while Brisbane recorded a rate of 30.4%, with 57 total auctions coming to a sales total of $4.8 million.

Story by Patrick Stafford www.smartcompany.com.au

ALMOST two out of three consumers expect a rise in house prices during the next 12 months, new data suggests.

But that’s fewer than the 80 per cent who thought likewise earlier in 2010.

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer house price index dropped to 51.1 in October, compared to its previous reading of 58.8 in July, and well below a its January peak of 80.3.

Westpac senior economist Matthew Hassan said 63 per cent of consumers expect house prices to rise during the next year, down from 70 per cent in July and a peak of 84.4 per cent in both April and January.

"Consumers have continued to pare back their expectations for house prices despite interest rates staying on hold since May," Mr Hassan said, releasing the data on Friday.

That may be in response to recent softer sale results.

The spread of expectations in October points to an average expected price rise of 2.6 per cent during the next 12 months, down from 3.6 per cent in July and 5.7 per cent in April.

"The fact that most still expect prices to rise suggests that those looking to sell properties will be more inclined to postpone selling until a later date than accept materially lower price offers now," Mr Hassan said.

Source: www.gympietimes.com.au