AUSTRALIAN capital city house price rises are set to remain weak, a survey suggests.

The September quarter survey conducted by National Australia Bank (NAB) found expected annual price rises averaged just 1.5 per cent.

That’s the same as in the June quarter survey, but well down from the 6.0 per cent average rise expected in the March quarter survey, the first in the new series.

Canberra was expected to post the strongest rise of 5.0 per cent, while Brisbane was at the back of the pack, with an anticipated increase of only 0.1 per cent.

Elsewhere, expected rises were 3.3 per cent in Adelaide, 2.7 per cent in Sydney, 1.6 per cent in Perth and 1.3 per cent in Melbourne.

The survey found properties selling for less than $500,000 were expected to post the biggest price gains, while the those going for more than $2,000,000 were expected to rise by the least.

Foreign buyers were expected to account for five per cent of existing property sales and seven per cent of purchases of new developments, down from nine per cent in both categories in the June quarter.

For existing residential properties, access to credit and rising interest rates were about equal at the top of the list of constraints on demand, although the existing level of prices and uncertainty about employment security were also seen as significant.

For new developments, tight credit was the most important constraint, but rising interest rates and housing affordability were also significant constraints.

Even so, the survey found residential property was the strongest-performing category, classed as "good".

All other property categories were seen as only "fair", with infrastructure and offices the best of the rest, and hotels, retail and industrial property the weakest.

The survey also found residential rents were expected to rise by "around 2.5 per cent" over the coming year on average across Australia.

Tighter rental markets in Sydney and Melbourne meant rent rises were expected to be larger in NSW and Victoria, at 3.3 per cent in both states.

In Western Australia and Queensland, rises were expected to be weaker, at 1.4 per cent in WA and and 1.7 per cent in Queensland.

The survey respondents represent a range of players in the commercial and residential real estate market – real estate agents and managers (48 per cent), property developers (18 per cent), owners and investors (15 per cent), asset and fund managers (12 per cent) and valuers (7 per cent).

Story Garry Shilson-Josling, AAP Economist

The central bank says it’s aware of the difficulties property developers face obtaining credit, but it has questioned whether the sector is overly-reliant on debt.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Ric Battellino expects an improvement in the economy over the next few years to be reflected in the commercial property market.

In a speech to the Property Council of Australia in Brisbane on Friday, Dr Battellino said it was difficult not to conclude that the financing of the property sector became "over-extended" during the boom years, and that a period of adjustment was "largely unavoidable".

"In saying this, I don’t want to downplay the difficulties that some firms are now experiencing as that adjustment takes place, or the impact it is having on property development," Dr Battellino said.

"But cycles like the one we are going through seem to be endemic to the property sector and raise the question of whether, over the longer term, the financing model of the sector should shift towards more equity and less debt."

However, he said the "adjustment process" had been under way for some time and substantial progress had been made.

He said a period of increasing arrears on property loans may be coming to an end, after equity raisings had made an important contribution to reduced gearing levels.

As well, the expected improvement in the economy over the next couple of years would be "reflected in the commercial property market", he said.

"There are already some signs of this," Dr Battellino said.

"That in turn should boost lender’s willingness to make loans to the sector, though I don’t think it would be in anybody’s interest to return to the free-flowing credit of a few years ago."

He said the property sector was vulnerable to changes in the availability of credit because it operates with a relatively high level of gearing and low holdings of cash.

Dr Battellino added that he was satisfied with the current moderate growth in household credit after an annual increase of seven per cent.

The moderate pickup was mostly due to housing loans, while other forms of household debt, such as credit card debt, margin loans and personal loans had been "relatively flat".

"All this is consistent with households taking a more cautious approach to their finances," he said.

"For households, therefore, the current picture is one where borrowing for housing is broadly growing in line with income, house prices are stable and there is little appetite for other forms of debt," he said.

"From the Reserve Bank’s perspective, this seems to be a satisfactory state of affairs."

He also said that small businesses currently had better access to credit than the large business sector.

Over the next few years, the RBA expects economic growth to pick up from its current rate of 3.75 per cent to closer to 4 per cent.

It was then likely that underlying inflation would pick up from the current 2.75 per cent to be around three per cent by the first half of 2012, Dr Battellino said.

"In the Australian economy, growth is around trend and underlying inflation is in the target range," Dr Battellino said.

He added that keeping growth around trend and inflation within the target range would be challenging given the economy was approaching full capacity and the resource boom was re-emerging.

"As noted in the statement issued after the board meeting earlier this week, if economic conditions evolve as currently expected, it will be likely that higher interest rates will be required at some point," he said.

Dr Battellino said that global economic growth, and Asian growth, was returning to around trend.

Story by Kim Christian Ipswich Advertiser

It’s now easier to get a job, but owning your own home is expected to become much more difficult.

As the nation moves into a period of higher house prices, rising interest rates and falling unemployment, economic commentators are pointing to declining housing affordability over the next few years.

Housing surveys released this week show residential property prices could climb by as much as 20 per cent over the next three years in Sydney, Perth and Adelaide, while other capitals are anticipating more modest growth.

At the same time, some economists predict unemployment could fall as low as four per cent and variable interest rates could soar past nine per cent as the resources boom kicks in.

BIS Shrapnel managing director Rob Mellor says steady residential property growth is expected over the next three years thanks to a strong economy, firm employment and income growth.

"The big risk is affordability," Mr Mellor said.

"That’s the part of the equation that certainly suggests over the next three years affordability will become a major issue."

While tight housing supply and strong migration were driving growth in Sydney, the imminent resources boom was set to keep dwelling prices firm in Perth, Mr Mellor said during the launch this week of the BIS Shrapnel/QBE Housing Outlook for 2010-13.

"Affordability will deteriorate as we go to a higher interest rate environment by 2013," he said.

"It will deteriorate back to the sort of poor affordability that we had during 2008, when interest rates got to 9.5 per cent.

"So it’s certainly a negative."

In terms of mortgage repayments as a percentage of income, affordability remains a serious issue.

"It will be a critical issue over a three year period," Mr Mellor said.

"We do expect interest rates to rise in 2011/12.

"They’ll probably be back at around 8.3 per cent or so by June 2012 and more like 9.1 per cent by June 2013."

Almost 50,000 full time jobs were created last month, keeping Australia’s unemployment rate at 5.1 per cent for September, the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data shows.

Meanwhile, National Australia Bank is less bullish in its housing forecasts, saying annual price rises would average just 1.5 per cent.

The bank expects Canberra prices to rise 5.0 per cent, Adelaide to post a 3.3 per cent increase, just 2.7 per cent in Sydney, while Perth should grow by 1.6 per cent.

After record growth, Melbourne is expected to record an increase of 1.3 per cent and Brisbane should remain flat.

The survey found properties selling for less than $500,000 were expected to post the biggest price gains.

While Australia is nowhere near the dark days of 2003 when many mortgage holders had to part with a large chunk of their weekly wage, economists say we are just six interest rate rises away from that critical point.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has lifted the cash rate six times in the past year, bringing the cash rate to 4.5 per cent in May.

Commonwealth Bank chief economist Michael Blythe said household incomes were still constrained, while interest rates and house prices were tipped to rise.

"So there’s a whole set of factors that have acted to reduce housing affordability from a cash flow perspective," Mr Blythe said.

However, he said there was a "way to go" until housing affordability reached the crisis point of 2003 when debt servicing ratios hit a peak while the cash rate sat around five per cent.

"We’re obviously a fair way from that point and there’s the sense that a drop in affordability has taken some of the steam out of the housing market," Mr Blythe said.

Home owners who bought just before the financial crisis in 2008 will remember the cash rate reaching 7.25 per cent.

He said first home buyers would slowly return to the market, simply because that demographic "requires a certain level of housing stock".

"We’ve had this period of rapid housing growth and that has generated a big demand for housing," he said.

© 2010 AAP
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The Reserve Bank surprised many when it decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.5 per cent this month, despite the market pricing in a greater than 70 per cent chance of a rise.

It has now been five consecutive months since the last rate rise in May, which is good news for the property market.

Sydney property activity for spring has been solid with September recording a healthy 66 per cent clearance rate with total sale values up on this time last year driven by a surge in listings.

Almost 2300 properties are listed for auction this month, compared with 1625 for the same period last year.

It seems vendors are taking advantage of the traditionally strong spring selling season combined with the impetus to act now before the next phase of interest rate rises begins and dampens buyer enthusiasm.

It’s no longer clear whether the next move upwards will be in November or if the Reserve Bank is likely to wait until the new year to start raising rates again.

According to the RBA, the average standard variable mortgage rate offered by the banks in September was 7.4 per cent.

Regardless of when interest rates start to move again, most economic forecasters are expecting at least another 1 per cent by the end of next year.

Take into  account comments from the banks about their struggle with increased funding costs, and it would be prudent to expect an additional increase on top of official cash rate movements.

So by the end of 2011, it’s possible that standard variable mortgage rates will be at 8.5 per cent or higher.

So what can mortgage holders do to gain some protection?

Many will already be thinking about potentially fixing part, if not all, of their mortgage.

Up until the last month, there was some uncertainty over the path of official interest rates due to some weak economic data at home and abroad.

This affected future views of interest rates in the market, and these in turn influenced how banks set their
fixed mortgage rates. According to RBA data, fixed-rate mortgages have been at similar levels as the standard variable rate since July, the first time since early 2009.

The latest housing finance figures (August) show the proportion of owner-occupiers taking out fixed rate home loans was less than 4 per cent, and actually fell slightly from July.

That is, more than 96 per cent of new loans in August were variable.

There is always a risk in fixing a mortgage and picking the right time to do so. The last time the proportion of new loans being fixed rose significantly occurred in March 2008, when the standard variable mortgage rate was
9.35 per cent, just shy of the peak four months later.

At this time, 24 per cent of all new loans were fixed, according to the ABS.

Now may be the right time to at least consider the option of fixing a portion of your mortgage.

With further rises on the cards, the opportunity exists to lock in a three-year rate now which may well be below the standard variable rate in a few months.

Anthony Ishac is the general manager for the Fairfax Media-owned Australian Property Monitors.

Have you noticed the word eco has started to crop up in ads for houses? We’ve seen it on consumer products – just walk down the cleaning aisle and check out the hundreds of claims for biodegradable, environmentally friendly, green and renewable. And I couldn’t help but notice this week, that the word eco is cropping up more and more. It’s not a flood but it definitely looks like the beginning of a trickle. And that’s how streams usually start.

Of course, not all green claims apply to houses. For example, you wouldn’t expect to see a home being advertised as biodegradable. Although some tenants might be able to claim they are renting something that fits the bill because it is crumbling before their eyes.

I contacted the consumer affairs departments in a couple of states, as well as the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission to see if they had received any complaints about unsupported green claims on houses for sale or rent – but it seems if it’s happening, it’s not yet in big enough numbers to get noticed by those kinds of bodies.

Christopher Zinn, of consumer advocacy group Choice, says products on supermarket shelves are awash with green claims, so he wouldn’t be surprised to see it emerging in the housing market too.

"I can say my house is green or eco or anything," Zinn says. "Anyone can make [that claim] because there really is no measure or standard."

However, there is a ceiling to green claims on houses – informed buyers. It’s not quite like buying a spray cleaner, where you dash wildly through the supermarket, potentially with a trolley crammed with a couple of toddlers whose little windmill arms try to grab at all manner of colourful products as you whiz past. There’s little time or head space to give much thought to the price of the thing you end up buying, let alone the veracity of its environmental claims. But with a residential property you take a lot more time to decide – usually – have more time to investigate claims the home is somehow green or kind on the environment. And then there are building inspections that can give you some professional insight too.

There are always going to be agents who try to put a green spin on things though. Like the guy who told me the other day without a quiver in his voice or a shift in tone that it was great the unit he was selling faced west because it got lots of afternoon sun. Um yes, the type that hits you in the eyes, blinds you, and turns your place into an oven.

It begs the question. What makes a green house? Is it green if it meets the newish five star energy minimum that many new houses and major renovations must be built to? Does whacking on a couple of solar panels, or a 2000-litre water tank make it green? How about a couple of draught stoppers? Or building a whopping big house that is filled with downlights and nary a ceiling fan in sight. It might face north (a good thing) but it doesn’t pay attention to too many other details that could make it tread more lightly on the environment. Should there be some minimum standard that properties have to meet to use the label "eco"?

As flagged a few weeks ago, the Council of Australian Governments is proposing a national energy ratings scheme from next year, which could look something like the one already in place in the ACT. If the scheme is introduced, that could help shine some more light on whether houses can really be called eco, or just plain old energy and water guzzlers.

As Christopher Zinn says: "Wherever you see the word eco or green or natural you need to get out a very accurate ruler. It could mean anything and nothing."

Story by Carolyn Boyd, a property journalist and keen follower of Australia’s housing market.

Source: www.domain.com.au

Sydney has been awarded the dubious distinctions of being the city where mortgages account for the highest proportion of income in the world, and with the highest proportion of mortgage arrears in Australia.

Sydneysiders spend an average of three-quarters of their monthly income on property repayments, according to a survey by realestate.com.au, with the average house price at $626,444 and the average monthly repayment around $4,123. In contrast, the average repayment in London is less than two-thirds of monthly income, and less than half in New York.

A separate survey by Moody’s has also revealed that Sydney also has Australia’s highest level of mortgage delinquencies, with the Fairfield-Liverpool region recording a delinquency rate of 2.77%, and accounts for 4.24% of all arrears in Australia. Even so, Moody’s Arthur Karabatsos highlighted that, overall, Australia has a low level of arrears compared to similar economies.

Investors in the real estate investment trust (REIT) sector are preparing for a bumpy last quarter of calendar 2010 caused by rising interest rates and the next round of office and retail property valuations.

Property trust analysts have predicted another round of consolidation among the trusts is not far away as predators look to take advantage of the continued low share prices for many of the listed trusts.

Deutsche Bank’s Matthew Bertram has earmarked Mirvac’s residential business as a prime target for any consolidation within the REIT sector.

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”In our view, Mirvac’s residential brand would be saleable, if REITs were to enter a consolidation phase,” he said.

”If Mirvac’s return on capital remains below its weighted average cost of capital in the medium term, on our estimates a sale of the residential division would be accretive to funds from operations, reduce debt and potentially facilitate a return of capital to shareholders.”

Other deals being worked on are the sale or internalisation of the management rights of the ING Group’s listed trusts, while Stockland is closer to securing the retirement group Aevum.

Investors are debating whether Stockland will launch a bid for FKP’s retirement assets.

Reflecting the fluctuating sentiment among REIT investors was the S&P/ASX 300 A-REIT Accumulation Index, which underperformed the broader equity market by 5.5 per cent, returning a negative 0.9 per cent for September. That compared with August, when the same index outperformed the broader market by 3.5 per cent, returning 3.5 per cent over the month.

The managing director of Maxim Asset Management, Winston Sammut, said over the past year to 18 months, Australian REITs had been concentrating on improving their balance sheets as well as refinancing their debt facilities.

Where possible, a number have been actively disposing of ”non-core assets”. As a result, most of the A-REITs have moved back to basics, becoming the traditional defensive asset class it should always have been.

Mr Sammut said that as a consequence of these changes, the longer-term outlook for A-REITs was positive.

”Over the short term, we expect the sector to trade around current levels before moving ahead as investors become more comfortable with the reformation of the A-REITs that has taken place over the last year or so,” Mr Sammut said.

He added the recently launched Maxim Income Fund benefited from the volatile financial markets, generating a return of 3.29 per cent from July 15 (the date of the last distribution) to September 30th.

Story by Carolyn Cummins COMMERCIAL PROPERTY EDITOR www.smh.com.au

India’s richest man, Mukesh Ambani, has moved into his new home — a 27-storey mansion worth $1 billion.

The enormous Mumbai palace has three helipads, a dance studio, a ball room, a 50-seat theatre and an underground car park for 160 cars, according to media reports.

The 37,000 square metre home is believed to be the world’s most expensive and took seven years to build.

Mr Ambani, 53, is a major shareholder at Reliance Industries — an oil, retail and biotechnology conglomerate.

Forbes magazine has ranked Mr Ambani the fourth-richest man in the world and values his net worth at $29 billion.

The tycoon’s mother, wife and three children will live with him inside the 173m tall monolith, alongside 600 staff members.

The building has been named Antila, after a mythical island, and has views over Mumbai and the Arabian Sea.

Shiny Varghese, an Indian design magazine editor, said Antilia was "obscenely lavish".

"But we are heading into the sort of culture where money is not a question when setting up a home," Mr Varghese told The Guardian.

But an associate of Mr Ambani told the newspaper there was nothing obscene about Antilia, and that the businessman had simply "built a house to his requirements".

"He can’t just walk into a cinema and watch a film like you or me," the unnamed associate said.

"So he has built a house to his requirements like anyone else would. It’s a question of convenience and requirements. It’s only a family home, just a big one.

"It’s just another home that someone is living in. It’s no big event."

Story from ninemsn staff reporters

National Australia Bank’s quarterly survey of property professionals shows they expect almost no house price growth over the next 12 months. The figures coincide with a BankWest Mortgage and Finance …

Read the full story here…

THERE are plenty of pitfalls the first-time real estate investor needs to avoid, writes Anthony Keane. Here’s a list of the most common errors and how to avoid them.

Getting your foot in the door of property investment can be a scary proposition.

It’s not every day you sign up for hundreds of thousands of dollars of debt for something you are not living in.

History has shown that, for long-term investors, the rewards are usually worth the risks, but there are plenty of traps the first-timers need to avoid.

Tax, interest rates, tenants, property agents, renovations and insurance are among the key areas where mistakes can cost investors big money, or at least deny them some of the profits they seek.

Today, Your Money examines some of the traps for first-time property investors.

Seminars that bite

University lecturer, author and investor Peter Koulizos warns about so-called "property education" seminars that are really just sales seminars designed to flog overpriced property to pumped-up investors.

"But I would encourage people to try to see lots of seminars just leave your chequebook at home," he says.

"You get different perspectives and you can get good information, but just go with your eyes wide open."

Where’s the research?

"Some people spend more time researching the plasma TV they are going to buy, rather than the property they are going to buy," says Koulizos, who wrote The Property Professor’s Top Australian Suburbs.

These days we are spoilt for choice, with a wealth of information about property prices, trends, hot and cold suburbs, tips, traps and warnings in the print media and online.
Buying for tax purposes

Koulizos says many people look at property investing as a way to get a bigger tax refund.

"But you are only getting a refund because you made a loss," he says.

This practice is known as negative gearing, but seasoned investors know that a positively-geared investment where the property pays you a profit is the ultimate aim.

First-time investors are usually negatively geared in their approach, so they may as well get their tax refund back sooner.

Louise Carr, a property strategist with investment group Ironfish, says completing an income tax variation form can help smooth out your cashflow rather than get a lump sum refund.

"This way you can organise to get your tax back on a weekly or fortnightly basis with your pay," she says.

Depreciation debacles

One of the best tax benefits from property investment is being able to claim a deduction for depreciation of items within the property and the building cost of the property.

You don’t physically pay these costs, so effectively it’s free money coming back through your tax return.

However, many investors don’t understand depreciation, Carr says.

"Deductions for new homes can be up to $15,000 a year.

"We often find that some accountants don’t make people aware of it. We recommend going to an accountant who owns property themselves, so they know the advantages and are aware of tax legislation."

A depreciation schedule will list all your depreciation deductions. They typically cost $500-$600 and are available through a quantity surveyor, are tax-deductible themselves, and are available through a quantity surveyor.

Bad advice

Everyone has an opinion about buying property and these days opinions are deeply divided about the short-term outlook for real estate investment.

There are also different opinions about what to buy, where to buy and tax strategies, and investors should not rely on the advice of friends and family members, who may have completely different financial situations.

Carr says getting good professional advice is crucial to owning the right investment.

"People who get advice from friends and relatives find that their investments are generally not set up properly," she says.

Paying too much

Ian Lloyd, an advisory board member of property and finance group Investa Solutions, says some investors are paying more than they should.

"There are developers out there who, I believe, are offering properties that are overpriced," he says.

Lloyd says some government schemes and incentives are prompting people to create properties and developments that are "a little manufactured" and slug hefty management fees, Lloyd says.

Property management is another area where people can pay too much.

"Don’t pay letting fees or re-letting fees to property managers," Lloyd says.

"For every week of rent you give up, for example for a letting fee, that equals 2 per cent of your rent. So if you pay an 8 per cent management fee but there’s two weeks’ rent for letting, it’s 12 per cent, then if it’s re-let and there’s another fee, you are in effect paying 14 per cent.

"If you can negotiate a flat fee something like 10 per cent you don’t lose rent upfront through letting fees."

No safety net

Investors can lose everything if something goes wrong and they don’t have the financial firepower to cover the costs and their loan repayments.

"Have a strategy where you have set up a reserve," Lloyd says.

"A good finance broker or adviser can help you set up a buffer that would mean if you lost your job you could still keep the property."

Carr says it doesn’t have to be cash an available line of credit could be enough protection.

"Have a kitty of $20,000. Then if you run into trouble or tenants don’t pay on time, you can still sleep at night."

Interest rate panic

Fixed-rate loans have lost popularity in recent years, but fresh talk about rising rates can prompt many beginners to fix.

Koulizos says some people can get trapped in a long-term fixed rate loan say five years because they panic when rates are relatively high.

"Then in about three, six or 12 months the rates start to come down again but you have locked yourself in for years paying a higher rate," he says.

"Generally people fix at the wrong time, but fixing rates can be good especially if you are risk-averse."

Easily scared off

Some investors decide to sell up after just one bad tenant, Koulizos says.

"You can easily get rid of a tenant who’s doing the wrong thing, but as soon as you sell, your asset will not be going up in value," he says.

The vast majority of tenants are not bad people, and if you treat them well most of them will respond in kind.

Renovating? Use your head

Koulizos says many people renovate an investment property with their heart, not their head.

"They renovate a property like they want to live in it, and can over-capitalise," he says.

Save the crazy colour schemes and top-of-the-range fittings for your own home. Rental properties with neutral colours are likely to attract a broader range of tenants.

Ignoring insurance

Landlord insurance is vital for property investors. It’s tax-deductible and not as expensive as you might think.

For example, Carr says a policy that covers things such as malicious damage, accidental damage, rental default and legal liability would cost you $255 a year through major landlord insurer Terri Scheer.

"Some investors think ‘I have a property manager – I don’t need landlord insurance’, but they do," she says.

Lack of patience

"Property is get rich slow," Carr says. "Some people don’t believe that property prices will double again, but historically they have doubled every seven to 10 years."

"The more times you go through the cycles, the more money you are going to make."

  The CEO of Australia’s largest independently-owned mortgage broker, Mortgage Choice, says the latest ABS housing finance data* highlights that warnings of interest rate rises are having a dampening effect on home loan demand.

The August ABS Housing Finance report 5609.0 shows a reduction in both the number and value of housing finance for investment housing, while the value remained steady for owner occupied housing finance. The total value of dwelling commitments dropped 1.3% from July to August 2010.

The number of owner occupied loans increased 1.0% and the number of loans for the purchase of established dwellings increased 1.4%. However, the number of loans for the purchase of new dwellings dropped 2.0% and the number of loans for the construction of dwellings dropped 1.0%.

Mortgage Choice CEO Michael Russell said, “It is no secret that winter delivered a slowed pace for housing finance demand, particularly from investors.”

“There is no doubt the Reserve Bank’s hold on the cash rate will shortly come to an end. What is just as worrying for potential and existing borrowers is how lenders will react to the news.

“To counteract any out of cycle rate movements, potential borrowers need to factor in higher loan repayments, create a savings buffer as early as possible and research their loan options thoroughly. It is important to know all the ins and outs before entering the mortgage maze.

“Some good news is that we have witnessed a dozen or so lenders announce product changes over the past couple of months. In a further sign that lender competition for home loans is rapidly returning, some lenders are offering special discounted interest rates and higher loan to value ratios.

“With a close eye on interest rates, potential and existing borrowers need to knuckle down now to prepare for rises by assessing their household budget, repayment strategy and the suitability of any home loan.

“A professional mortgage broker will introduce a borrower to a range of options, work to secure interest rate or fee discounts and put forward a solid case for loan approval. These are major reasons why 40% of all new home loans in Australia are sourced through brokers.

“Looking forward to the spring housing finance data, we will be keen to see if demand heats up.”

*All figures quoted are seasonally adjusted.

Source: www.australianhousehunters.com.au

The International Monetary Fund has warned that Australian real estate prices might be overvalued.

In its latest World Economic Outlook, cautions that a reversal in prices could hit consumers who have speculated on rising values.

"Given assessed mild overvaluation, a potential correction in house" prices "could hit household wealth and consumer confidence," the IMF has warned.

The cautionary language follows recent comments from the Reserve Bank that Australia’s property market shows "welcome signs" of cooling after earlier interest rate rises and the withdrawal of government stimulus.

Early fears of a property bubble have emerged after housing prices rose in the year to June.

The Reserve Bank’s head of financial stability, Luci Ellis, said yesterday that the Australian property market did not appear to be overheated.

However she said: "Buying an asset because you expect the price to rise in the future, well, that is actually the academic definition of a bubble. So that would be undesirable and seen as a problem."

In an earlier development, the Fitch ratings agency said it planned to "stress test" the impact of any downturn on banks and insurers.

Story by Peter Ryan Yahoo 7 Finance

Interest rates remaining unchanged for a fifth month.

The central bank left its key cash rate at 4.5 per cent, defying widespread expectations that it would increase it to 4.75 per cent.

"It’s a bit of a surprise," said Macquarie senior economist Brian Redican. "The press release (accompanying the RBA decision) looked consistent with an interest rate increase".

"The present uncertainty in the financial markets is keeping the RBA on the sidelines," Mr Redican said, adding ”that higher interest rates will be required."

Holders of a typical $300,000 mortgage are already paying $300 a month more than they were a year ago, when the RBA began the first of six rate rises to return borrowing costs to their long-term levels as the economy bounced back.

The reprieve for borrowers may be short-lived, though, with the big commercial banks flagging their intention to pass on rising funding costs in the form of higher interest rates.

There was speculation such an increase may come as early as today, but National Australia Bank, Westpac and ANZ said no change to their mortgage rates is imminent.
"We have not made any announcements regarding any changes to our standard variable interest rate at this time," said a spokesperson for NAB.

Westpac also ruled out a rate rise until after next month’s Reserve Bank meeting scheduled for November 2.

”Our standard variable rate remains unchanged in line with today’s RBA decision,” said a spokesperson for Westpac.
”We have no current plans to change our standard variable rate ahead of next months’ RBA meeting.”

The Commonwealth Bank said its rates are under review and declined to comment on its likely decision.

Rates outlook

And the prospect of an official rate rise still looms after the RBA hinted strongly last month it will use rate rises to combat inflation pressures from the booming commodity export sector – a suggestion repeated today by RBA governor Glenn Stevens.

”The current stance of monetary policy is delivering interest rates to borrowers close to their average of the past decade. The Board regards this as appropriate for the time being,” Mr Stevens said, in a statement accompanying the RBA decision.

”If economic conditions evolve as the Board currently expects, it is likely that higher interest rates will be required, at some point, to ensure that inflation remains consistent with the medium-term target,” Mr Steven said.

Inflation figures for the September quarter are due on October 27, just days before the central bank’s next interest rate meeting on Melbourne Cup Day.

Financial markets were pricing in an increase of 41 basis points in 12 months’ time – implying at least one more rate rise by the RBA by then – down from 53 basis points prior to today’s RBA decision.

Stocks pared their day’s losses after the announcement, ending about 0.4 per cent lower for the day after being off more than 1.4 per cent earlier.

RBA view

The RBA signalled that continuing doubts about the health of the international economy contributed significantly to its decision to stay put on interest rates this month.

”Financial markets are still characterised by a degree of uncertainty, and are responding both to differences in growth outlooks between regions and evident strains on public finances and banking systems in several smaller countries in Europe,” Mr Stevens said in his statement.

Greece, Spain and Ireland are among European economies struggling to cope with soaring budget deficits and slowing growth.

By contrast, Australia’s economy is showing ”growth around trend over the past year,” with prices for the country’s commodity exports ”very high,” the RBA governor said.

Indeed, Australia’s key economic measures are mostly improving, with the government’s fiscal stimulus spending easing back just as private spending perks up to take up the slack.

Importantly, the quickening growth is yet to stoke a pick-up in inflation, with prices growth moderating from ”the excessive pace of 2008,” the statement said. ”The effects of the rise in tobacco taxes aside, CPI inflation has been running at around 2.75 per cent over the past year. That looks likely to continue in the near term,” he said.

The Reserve Bank aims to keep inflation between a band of between 2 and 3 per cent over the medium term.

Patchy economy

One reason why inflation has been held back so far is that the growth of the overall economy – excluding the booming mining sector – remains patchy.

Data out today on the services industry showed the sector has contracted for the past five months, while retail sales rose 0.3 per cent in August – less than the 0.4 per cent pace expected.

Housing has also been under a cloud with price growth flattening out in major cities while new building approvals have fallen for six of the last eight months.

Other areas of weakness include slow lending growth, implying that banks are holding back on loans to businesses.

Mr Scutt noted that the RBA focused also on subdued credit growth.
"This has been getting little or no coverage in recent times but this will be closely watched in the months ahead…Credit has been weak despite the strong domestic labour market," said Arab Bank Australia trader dealer David Scutt.

"With households unwilling or unable to borrow more at present, it offers a strong indication that household finances are struggling with rates at present levels."

Other economists pointed to the brevity of Mr Stevens’ comments.

”What’s notable is that it is quite a short statement,” said RBC Capital Markets senior economist Su-Lin Ong.  ”There’s virtually nothing about housing or consumption” on the statement, she said.

"It does suggest maybe the RBA is paying a little more attention to what’s happening in Europe and some of the strains in the banking system there," she said.

Even so, "a rate hike before the end of the year is more likely than not," she said.

czappone@fairfax.com.au  BusinessDay

Federal Treasurer Wayne Swan says banks could not justify raising rates above the official cash rate if the Reserve Bank of Australia increases its rates when it meets on Tuesday.

On September 21, the RBA kept its benchmark cash rate on hold at 4.5 per cent since the most recent increase in May.

The last rise capped off a series of six that began in October last year when cash was at a multi-decade low of 3.0 per cent.

But economists are predicting a rise when the bank meets at 1430 AEDT on Tuesday.

Mr Swan said there were issues on the long-term funding profile of banks but it still didn’t justify hitting customers with higher interest rates than those of the RBA.

"I don’t think there is any justification whatsoever for any bank to move above the official cash rate decision of the Reserve Bank," Mr Swan told ABC Radio.

"Banks are making healthy profits at the moment, their net interest margins are back above what they were before the global financial crisis."

HSBC’s chief economist Paul Bloxham expects the RBA 25 basis points this year, putting the brakes on an economy fuelled by China’s insatiable demand for resources.

Mr Bloxham says that if the central bank does not raise official interest rates at its meeting on Tuesday, it is likely to do so before the end of the year.

Story from ninemsn.com.au

Many Australian homeowners can’t be bothered switching lenders even to save more than a thousand dollars, according to mortgage broker Loan Market.

A national survey by Loan Market found 58 per cent of respondents said they would need to save at least $1500 a year to be motivated to refinance with another lender.

Loan Market chief operating officer Dean Rushton said the survey results showed that lenders and brokers needed to communicate more effectively about the potential savings from moving mortgages.

“The differences between lenders and the interest rates and conditions they offer has never been wider,” Rushton said.

“But our survey shows that people can’t be bothered switching banks even if they were able to save $1000 to $1500 a year.

Rushton said homeowners were often hesitant to refinance because they believed it would be too much trouble due to the fees and paperwork involved. “The fact is people can achieve significant annual savings by shopping around and getting a better deal on a mortgage with a much more competitive package,” he said.

“If you’re borrowing more than $250,000, then the savings can be even greater.”

The online poll of 380 people found 42 per cent of those surveyed would need to see potential savings of more than $2000 a year before considering switching loans.

Ten per cent said they would refinance to save $500 a year, 14 per cent to save $500 to $1000, 18 per cent to save $1001 to $1500 and 16 per cent to save $1501 to $2000.

Rushton said a mortgage broker was well placed to review an existing home loan and determine whether a borrower could obtain a better deal from a rival lender.

“Mortgage holders might have to accept some exit fees from their original lender but it can be worth it if they can negotiate a significant reduction on their interest rate,” he said.

Benefits of refinancing included the chance to reduce debt on credit cards, which often had interest rates triple that of an average variable home loan.

Source: Australian Property Investor