Home loans by value fell in October and remained flat over the year, suggesting the housing sector remains stagnant.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) said on Monday that total housing finance by value fell 2.5 per cent in October, seasonally adjusted, to $20.458 billion.

The ABS data also showed that the value of home loans was largely unchanged from October 2010, when it was reported at $20.593 billion.

The number of home loans approved in October 2011 rose 0.7 per cent.

National Australia Bank chief economist Robert Henderson said Monday’s data showed the housing market was still deteriorating.

Mr Henderson said it was a fairly dismal report on the housing market, with falling lending in value terms and construction and investment lending both weak.

Recent data, including the national accounts figures released last week, have highlighted the weakness of the housing sector.

"It is clear that over the foreseeable future Australia will fall well short of building the number of new homes required for both owner-occupiers and renters," Housing Industry Association chief economist Harley Dale said.

"Amidst the growing risks to our economy from the situation in Europe, now is the time to be providing stimulus to the new home building sector while at the same time reinvigorating the housing supply reform process, which currently lies dormant."

Commonwealth Bank of Australia senior economist Michael Workman said Monday’s ABS figures were a little softer than he expected.

"If you go back and look at the data over the last 15 years or so, housing credit growth still remains exceptionally weak.

"So, for the housing market, it’s strongly biased towards the buyers rather than sellers and it looks like it’s going to stay that way."

Mr Workman said the Australian dollar and local bond futures were largely unaffected by the data.

RBC Capital Markets fixed income and currency strategist Michael Turner said the October housing figures were a little dated.

"China has already reported trade data for November, and the finance data do not reflect the November and December (monetary) policy easing (in Australia)," he said.

"As such, there are limited implications for markets.

"We expect more timely domestic data to better reflect the softening in global growth in coming months, which should justify further easing (of interest rates) and a move to accommodative territory in 2012."

ICAP senior economist Adam Carr said the housing data showed the Australian lending market was recovering even before the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut interest rates.

The cash rate is now at 4.25 per cent after two consecutive 25-basis point cuts in November and December.

"The 50-basis points worth of cuts we’ve seen will likely see lending growth accelerate over coming months, which will start to add to the strong private demand numbers we’ve seen to date," Mr Carr said.

Story source: www.ninemsn.com.au

The property market will be drawing a collective sigh of relief as the year comes to a close.

As we look back on how the market performed in 2011, we may well see an overall correction of up to 10 per cent – a significant drop for the property market but a fraction of the sharemarket correction of 2008.

As we gaze into the crystal ball and wonder what 2012 has in store for home owners and property investors, there are a few indicators that suggest we are entering calmer waters.

With Europe in crisis, the US economy anaemic and China cooling, interest rates are on the way down. Experts predict the Reserve Bank will cut rates on Tuesday by 25 basis points and there will be a further reduction of up to 100 basis points throughout 2012.

Falling interest rates instantly increase affordability and entice people back to the market. Buyers rushed back in 2001 and 2009 mainly due to falling interest rates. The main difference next year is that it is unlikely to come packaged with increased first home buyer incentives.

Property is a great Australian pastime and this continues to be the case.

Web statistics show that, although competition for property was soft in 2011, web browsing continues to be very high. Nielsen’s online analysis of real estate portals suggests more than 3 million Australians search for property each month. That means about 15 per cent of the population is actively looking at property at any onetime.

This activity flows on to the physical market, with many agents reporting high numbers at inspections for good quality homes. Despite the level of interest, many people believe that 2011 has not been the right time to buy.

This means first home buyers and investors have stayed out of the property market. The effect is increased demand for rental property and a lowering of supply. As a result, we are likely to see rental yields lift next year.

According to the Reserve Bank, household savings rates are at their highest levels since the mid-1980s. They have been moving up since the mid-2000s, reaching 10.5 per cent of disposable income in the June quarter.

Many borrowers have been making substantial excess principal repayments in recent years and this will increase their equity and cash flow positions.

For many people, myself included, money begins to burn a hole in our pockets. The people who have been saving and have job stability – which is 95 per cent of the population – will start to realise the sky is not falling and will begin to make a move.

All markets are cyclical and often the greatest period of growth comes directly after the biggest falls.

I think when we look back on 2012 in years to come these factors will likely result in a bounce in median values, and the market will be back to where it started before 2011 hit.

Mark Armstrong is an independent property analyst and creator of propertytycoon.com.au, Australia’s first online auction tipping competition.

Source: www.domain.com.au

Economists are divided on whether borrowers will get a second interest rate cut in as many months on Tuesday.

Seven of the 14 economists surveyed by AAP say the RBA will cut the cash rate to 4.25 per cent from 4.5 per cent on December 6.

On Melbourne Cup day, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut the cash rate from 4.75 per cent, saying that recent information suggested inflation had been contained.

With inflation no longer a problem, the bias for the RBA is now firmly leaning towards rate cuts, with 10 of the 14 economists forecasting rate cuts by the middle of 2012.

Citigroup head of economics Paul Brennan is expecting the RBA to cut rates on Tuesday, despite expectations of strong economic growth in the September quarter.

"We see this as a policy of least regret given that the outlook for global growth has continued to weaken in the past month to well below trend," Mr Brennan said.

"We see scope to lower the cash rate to the bottom of the neutral range over the next few months, which would imply a cash rate of four per cent over the next three months."

The biggest risk to economic growth comes from Europe, which may well go into recession, or start another financial crisis, as several members of the euro struggle to meet debt repayments.

There are also local risks to economic growth.

In the past month the RBA, Treasury and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) have cut economic growth forecasts for 2012.

In addition to that, official figures for October showed a 10.7 per cent fall in building approvals and retail spending only rising 0.2 per cent.

On the other hand Australia’s mining boom is still going strong, with the sector making its biggest ever contribution to economic growth.

Nomura Australia chief economist Stephen Roberts said he doesn’t expect the cash rate to move for the foreseeable future unless something bad happens overseas.

"My forecast is that they are going to leave it at 4.5 per cent," he said.

"I’m assuming they will hold it neutral all the way through to the end of 2012 but my proviso is if Europe generally does go to hell in a handbasket, then they can drop interest rates a long way."

NAB senior economist Spiros Papadopoulos said the RBA won’t cut on Tuesday but by early next year the pressure will build for another rate cut.

"Obviously there’s a risk that they might cut interest rates next week, given everything that’s been happening offshore in the last couple of weeks," he said.

"On balance, given the fact that the domestic economy has been holding up okay we don’t think they need to rush in to cutting rates."

Story source: www.ninemsn.com.au

What do you do if you are young and thinking about investing in property?

A 19-year-old I know has plans to save up to buy his first property, and mentioned that he’s not too sure where to start. Should he do a property course, he wondered? And how do you know where is a good place to buy? Let alone what you should pay.

He’s thinking not of giddily purchasing his first property to live in, but of buying an investment property and slowly, over his lifetime, purchasing some others.

What do you do if you are young and thinking about investing in property?

A 19-year-old I know has plans to save up to buy his first property, and mentioned that he’s not too sure where to start. Should he do a property course, he wondered? And how do you know where is a good place to buy? Let alone what you should pay.

He’s thinking not of giddily purchasing his first property to live in, but of buying an investment property and slowly, over his lifetime, purchasing some others.

We’ve been hearing for a little while now how this is a trend among 20-somethings, and those into their 30s. Buy a place as an investment, often a cheaper unit in a less desirable area, and then tap into the tax advantages of negative gearing (by keeping your outgoings on the property higher than the rent coming in) and either rent yourself in an area you want to live, or stay at home with the baby boomer parents where the board is minimal and the washing comes for free.

So for Jake, and any other young people wondering which way to go, here’s a few tips. And I’m sure readers will offer up plenty more in the comments space below.

1. Ask yourself, should I be investing in property at all, and what do I expect to get from it?

If it’s a road to quick riches you want, then this is not the path to take. Yes, we have seen some huge run-ups in prices over the years, and it’s true that property prices, like the economy, tend to run in cycles, so we will obviously see increases in years to come, even despite the current negativity enveloping much of the globe.

Because property buyers are human, and love to follow a trend, and for some bizarre reason feel more comfortable buying when prices are running hot, there is no doubt there will be price rises once again in the future.

There are a whole bunch of other factors pointing to future price increases too – in some cities the lack of building will keep the supply lower than it should be, the population continues to grow meaning so does demand, and in Australia at least, we remain a wealthy country still experiencing household income growth.

However, don’t bet everything on this happening and by how much prices will go up – instead expect to see, over a longer period of time, steady increases with plenty of troughs along the way as the economic cycle rises and falls.

And now, here’s the cue for all the readers who argue the market is about to tank and that now is not the time to buy property. And with Europe perched on a precipice and the US still in an uncertain state, you do have to question whether the bottom of the market has been reached yet despite the pretty strong fundamentals underpinning the Australian economy at the moment.

However, if you are a young person just starting to save for your first property, you have a bit of time to sit back and watch the market while you save anyway, so don’t fret too much at this juncture.

2. Educate yourself

The mere mention of "property course" sends shivers down my spine. Often it’s run by property spruikers taking hundreds or thousands of dollars off gullible people who are then, at best, fed information they could find themselves by reading widely, or at worst, the poor souls are flogged the company’s own products or services, all with the shiny promise of sky-high returns.

There has never been an easier time to learn the whys and wherefores yourself. The internet has opened up a world of information, and young people wanting to learn a bit more about property should be heading there (to reputable sources) as well as to the property lift outs in newspapers, and better quality magazines.

Want prices? Find them on websites like Domain.com.au or Australian Property Monitors (both owned by Fairfax Media). Want to find the best loan? Check out a loan websites such as ratecity.com.au. And need to know where the market is headed? Read plenty of stories and opinion pieces and rather than taking just one as gospel, glean the general themes from what all have to say.

If there’s a few property terms you don’t understand – such as negative gearing – look them up and get your head around what they mean. That won’t unlock a magical key to property investment for you and land a bag of gold at your feet, but it will stop spruikers taking advantage of your youth and naivety.

3. Take a balanced approach

Property holds a certain glimmer for some young people – perhaps under the encouragement of their parents who prefer a bricks-and-mortar approach. And also because everyone has lived in a house or a unit, but not everyone has held shares or gold or even superannuation.

But if you are young and have the advantage of having your head screwed on the right way and are already thinking about investing, you should be looking at all investment classes impartially. Sure, consider property, but look at it as part of building a balanced portfolio.

Even at 18, 19, you’re not too young to start putting a few extra dollars into super, keeping some of your money in cash in the highest-paying account you can find, and also thinking about a small parcel of blue chip shares to start you off, all while saving to buy your first property. Education, it must be said, can also be considered an investment class in the fact that you are boosting your own potential earning capacity.

And when I say dollars, I really do mean just a few dollars. Even small amounts each week from a meagre income are better than nothing.

This is a smart approach because it lets you spread your risk, and not put everything into the one basket. Sure, this mean it will take you a little longer to save for the first property, but time is on your side if you are young, and to use a cliché, Rome wasn’t built in a day.

4. Save as much as you can before buying

If you plan on being a landlord, you will need to have some extra cash available to cover the loan in between tenants, and also to pay for any repairs to the property. If you are buying into an apartment block or townhouse, you may need also extra money to pay for special levies such as building repairs not covered by the sinking fund (the general fund amassed by the body corporate from strata levies).

So the smart thing to do is to save a good amount of money before purchasing so you’re not taking an uncomfortable risk.

5. Research where to buy

The old adage is buy as close to the city as you can and look for properties that don’t have huge outgoings due to lifts and fancy add-ons such as gyms and pools, but do have the advantage of being near good infrastructure.

Closeness to the city can be good but I would also focus on the infrastructure side of things, and whether or not the suburb has the potential to develop over time.

Buying near rail (heavy or light) infrastructure is always a good bet as the infrastructure will stay there for a long time, and as populations continue to grow and further congest areas, the infrastructure will become even more important.

Do carefully think before buying in areas with inherent negatives, such as heavy flight paths or a lot of noise. Also very busy roads can be a problem – it can be smarter to buy just off them.

Keep your tenant in mind – what type of person would like to rent this and do those people generally live in this area?

Do try to buy something that would be easy to sell again in a hurry if you needed to, should your circumstances change. If a property you are buying has sat on the market for months and months, be sure to find out why and be realistic about encountering the same selling problems if you should buy it.

For that same reason it is good to try to buy something that is around the median price for a suburb, as it should have a larger pool of potential buyers.

6. Keep some cash aside after buying

When you buy the property, don’t sink all your money into the loan if you can help it, keep a good chunk in a flexible high-interest earning account (not a term deposit, as you may need to access it at short notice).

Use this as your maintenance fund, and to top up the property loan if you need to (and for many properties, in the early years at least, the rent won’t cover the mortgage, council rates, strata and water supply charges, so you need to be in a position to pay for the gap yourself).

The cash you keep, though, must strictly be for investment and as a reserve for maintenance and loan top-ups, not for holidays or random spending, as you always need a buffer so you aren’t forced to sell at the worst possible time.

7. After you buy, keep saving

Direct any spare cash to your savings account, not your investment loan. Or if you decide to buy a property to live in, use the cash to pay down your own home loan as fast as you can, rather than the investment loan.

By doing this, you make negative gearing work for you because, by keeping the loan against the property larger, you are paying the highest amount of interest you can, while earning interest off your other money you are keeping in cash.

Or in the case of living in your own property you do want to pay that off as soon as possible to get rid of non-tax-deductible debt.

While I’m advocating not dumping all of your extra cash into your investment loan, it is prudent to pay the property off over time to gradually reduce your liabilities, rather than remain solely focussed on negative gearing.

For that reason, interest-only loans on investment properties may not be wise in the longer term, as you are basically betting on price increases to cover you. Yes, price hikes will probably happen over the longer period but you don’t want to bank your entire savings on them.

8. Get your hands dirty

If you buy a property that needs to be fixed up, and you have time on your side, get in and do it. Many things such as pulling up carpets and painting can be achieved with little experience – you just need to have a go.

You might be surprised at just how much painting kitchen cupboards, tired tiles and old baths can rejuvenate a property.

Do be aware of any dangers that lurk in the property though, such as asbestos, and treat them appropriately. And do call in trades for jobs that are beyond you, such as electrics, plumbing and larger tiling jobs.

9. Be a good landlord

Be prepared to spend on maintenance over time and keep your property up to scratch. You’ll attract better tenants, and your property will also hold its value better. Rundown rentals look shabby and often don’t command a good price come sales time.

10. Take your time before buying again

If you have your sights set on owning more than one property, don’t be in too much of a rush. Keep your investing balanced, putting some funds into other classes such as cash, shares and super.

And when you have built enough equity you can then consider buying a second property. Balance your risk though and don’t get yourself in over your head. You want the power to hold each property for as long as you see fit, rather than be forced to sell should disaster strike.

Story by Carolyn Boyd, a property journalist and keen follower of Australia’s housing market.

Source: www.domain.com.au

House hunters who are pre-approved plan for a happier New Year

Future first homebuyers considering making their property move in the New Year have strong awareness of the importance of seeking loan pre-approval before house hunting, based on insights from national mortgage broker, Mortgage Choice.

A Mortgage Choice survey of first homebuyers looking to purchase before February 2013 found two-thirds of respondents intend to apply for loan pre-approval*.

According to Acting Head of Corporate Affairs, Belinda Williamson, first homebuyers are seeking assurance about their borrowing capacity before starting their property search.

“Our survey showed primed first homebuyers are making the wise choice to get their property finance pre-approved by a lender. This step helps buyers hone their property search and shop with confidence when negotiating a purchase or bidding at auction,” Ms Williamson said.

“Loan pre-approval provides a conditional approval of a loan amount and is usually based on an assessment of potential borrowers’ individual circumstances, needs and ability to repay the loan.

“Keep in mind it’s usually a limited time offer, for a period of three to six months and can be sourced through a mortgage broker. Once pre-approved, it’s important to keep your broker up to speed with any changes in your financial situation as this may void the agreement.

“It pays to shop around. Not all lenders offer loan pre-approval and some don’t conduct individual assessments, meaning you may get a different loan limit upon applying for unconditional approval and, like those without pre-approval, you could miss out on a property if it’s above your loan limit.

“If you are looking to purchase in the New Year now is a good time get pre-approved so you don’t miss out on potential property purchases over the holiday period.”

Mortgage Choice has compiled three top tips to help potential borrowers prepare for home loan pre-approval:

Organise your deposit and evidence of savings – You generally need a deposit of at least 5% of the purchase price, plus upfront costs. However, you will need to show evidence of a genuine savings plan, such as bank statements that illustrate a savings strategy for at least three and up to six consecutive months. Note some lenders now consider rent payments as savings evidence.

Check your credit history – Grey areas in your credit history, such as bill defaults and/or prior loan/credit applications can affect your loan pre-approval application. Resolve any issues with the relevant debt provider before you apply. For a copy of your credit file from mycreditfile.com.au you must provide personal details including your address, employment and driver’s licence number.

Prepare your paperwork – Gather evidence of your employment, income, assets, liabilities and expenses. You will also need to provide your driver’s licence or other ID, recent pay slips, tax returns and bank statements. Having everything at arm’s reach will streamline this process.

Story source: www.mortgagechoice.com.au